Mls · resolved market
Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb43a5d302b29e08f3395f8294c162b365b12fd606fd3e3f490b9b58ceb4f213c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 61c | 7,552$4,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,629.73 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1c89backed Yes | 76c | 3,149$2,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Yes | 28c | 3,034$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,169.7 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed No | 32c | 1,465$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.44 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 15c | 1,188$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.87 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 54c | 766.2$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.9 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 21c | 629.75$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.8 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Yes | 27c | 518.52$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.52 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 13c | 429.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 36c | 411.04$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.07 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 79c | 397$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.37 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 47c | 300$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.08 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 71c | 297.19$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.73 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 30c | 291.82$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b3…7650backed Yes | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 28c | 280$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.6 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 76c | 183.34$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.34 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Yes | 56c | 176.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 39c | 161.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 79c | 154.29$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 46c | 151.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6013…9826backed Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 56c | 130.27$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 25c | 118$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Yes | 47c | 104.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed Yes | 53c | 103.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…c634backed Yes | 28c | 102.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 31c | 102.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 38c | 100.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 57c | 97.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 77c | 88.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 35c | 88.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 80c | 76.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…31b4backed Yes | 27c | 74.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f8…2869backed Yes | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 29c | 69.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 43c | 68.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 22c | 64.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x544d…88c5backed Yes | 26c | 50.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 64c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Yes | 64c | 46.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…ad6bbacked Yes | 72c | 44.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed No | 78c | 43.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 51c | 43.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 40c | 40.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 77c | 34.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 70c | 33.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 79c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 79c | 17.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?this page
- Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-09?No won
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.