WNBA · resolved market
Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 158.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb43c6a20cc35b292d78610e2b370e435409cb38059ad97b04cf0e78754862a07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 5,441$2,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,326.71 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 51c | 4,062$2,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,089.96 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f328backed Over | 60c | 3,604$2,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,425.75 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d53…eb1abacked Over | 48c | 2,997$1,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.19 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 1,108$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.8 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b5…2d74backed Over | 53c | 1,102$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.01 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 50c | 858.2$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.1 | 657 | 51.4%338 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 47c | 842.37$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Under | 50c | 549.76$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.88 | 454 | 15.6%71 W · 383 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 448.71$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.58 | 1,012 | 47.9%485 W · 527 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Over | 53c | 439.7$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.03 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 40c | 343.92$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.23 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 50c | 187.37$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.93 | 214 | 47.7%102 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 48c | 177.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Under | 35c | 86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 50c | 82.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 51c | 81.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 52c | 73.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 50c | 72.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 36c | 72.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 35c | 70.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02dc…a212backed Over | 52c | 69.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 36c | 50.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8106…bd36backed Under | 45c | 44.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 34c | 43.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b6…c324backed Over | 47c | 39.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Over | 51c | 30.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 42c | 27.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 64 | 1.6%1 W · 63 L | -26.1wins | -0.41per pick | 42cpaid | -97.6%equal weight | 17-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked Over | 55c | 26.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 52c | 24.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -11.1wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 53c | 24.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Over | 68c | 22.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 158.5this page
- Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State ValkyriesGolden State Valkyries won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 159.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 160.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5Over won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-11.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-13.5)Golden State Valkyries won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.