NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 216.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb441a65c3b3a0ea42fc753b66a91fe86a66b515ae23e8df4e86f47da27d90d9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 7,263$3,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,287.63 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1880…5ce5backed Over | 46c | 4,688$2,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,156.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 44c | 3,595$1,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582.7 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Over | 47c | 3,191$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee64…1d52backed Under | 54c | 2,181$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…c2b8backed Under | 54c | 2,038$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1e…bb68backed Under | 56c | 894.21$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.21 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 44c | 693.18$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 44c | 681$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.64 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 501.54$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.41 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4136…97eabacked Under | 54c | 469$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +91%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 42c | 461.71$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.89 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 47c | 300$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 53c | 253.1$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.48 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed0…c618backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 44c | 199.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 162$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 57c | 152.25$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 101.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…61a6backed Over | 46c | 99.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Over | 51c | 99.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 44c | 89.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 29c | 49.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Over | 49c | 47.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 279 | 43%120 W · 159 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 54c | 36.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 54c | 27.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…505cbacked Over | 55c | 25.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Under | 55c | 19.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 409 | 60.6%248 W · 161 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 216.5this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-3.5)Warriors won
- Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Jalen Green: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Mark Williams: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Suns (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Suns (-6.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. SunsWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Suns: 1H O/U 104.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Suns: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 213.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 214.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 215.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 217.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 219.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.