NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x809eac1aab4d3fdcea15a0efda3f0d59094a28f2f766179f9b6a8b67603188da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Under | 58c | 2,222$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.24 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 2,090$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 2c | 1,503$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad08…67a5backed Under | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 35c | 1,302$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.4 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0d…7435backed Over | 52c | 1,150$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.48 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 37c | 1,072$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.26 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 1,013$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f43…c0c2backed Over | 59c | 523.57$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.26 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 42c | 478.8$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.67 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 48c | 360$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 72c | 347.94$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.61 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 17c | 314.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 146 | 36.3%53 W · 93 L | +16.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Over | 56c | 258$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.82 | 469 | 40.3%189 W · 280 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 228.07$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.34 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Under | 44c | 227.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.43 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +9.7wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 222.83$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 44c | 156.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Under | 67c | 137.52$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb0…c7e6backed Over | 28c | 135$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862d…bc9bbacked Over | 40c | 123.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…b328backed Under | 45c | 101.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…04f4backed Over | 34c | 85.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 226 | 33.2%75 W · 151 L | +14.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 67c | 76.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…1440backed Over | 38c | 66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Over | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 587 | 54.7%321 W · 266 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 56c | 57.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 400 | 48.3%193 W · 207 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 62c | 42.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 66c | 42.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 40.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 52c | 37.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 64c | 35.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 37c | 31.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…505cbacked Over | 49c | 25.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e7…ab94backed Under | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…5a30backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…12ffbacked Under | 58c | 18.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-3.5)Warriors won
- Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Jalen Green: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Mark Williams: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Suns (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Suns (-6.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. SunsWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Suns: 1H O/U 104.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Suns: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 213.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 214.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 215.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 216.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 217.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 219.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.