MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb45eefbf5616dc1f415a91d1be27497629dcc4d9301a3faddbd86490ab681807
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda0f…d41cbacked Over | 57c | 8,135$4,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,496.81 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Over | 47c | 6,180$2,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,275.4 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 45c | 5,517$2,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,034.3 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 5,347$2,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,803.64 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Under | 55c | 4,423$2,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432.5 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 1,900$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.16 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 55c | 1,751$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.27 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 53c | 1,721$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.2 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 1,063$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 46c | 1,043$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.64 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Under | 55c | 911.08$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.1 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 41c | 860.06$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.1 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4722…2abfbacked Under | 14c | 808.63$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.35 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 746.56$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.74 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 54c | 711.29$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.19 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 46c | 603.73$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.59 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 44c | 549.09$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.49 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 476.48$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.18 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…66bbbacked Under | 56c | 439.86$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.32 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 36c | 438.24$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.89 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 70c | 379.48$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.34 | 27 | 92.6%25 W · 2 L | +9.8wins | +0.36per pick | 56cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 51c | 304.83$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.45 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 45c | 292.96$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.92 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 46c | 281.62$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.16 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 45c | 225.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.29 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 75c | 218.97$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.34 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 54c | 194.48$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.02 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 43c | 193.84$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 28c | 193.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 50c | 173.95$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.87 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 44c | 134.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 42c | 116.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 51c | 110.29$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 56c | 107.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed Under | 55c | 106.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 48c | 101.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 55c | 86.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 45c | 86.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Under | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 54c | 75.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 54c | 73.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 54c | 73.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 55c | 71.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 55c | 71.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked Under | 55c | 68.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -6.8wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Under | 55c | 68.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 32c | 65.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 37c | 62.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 31c | 60.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 46c | 56.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 46c | 54.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a05…7757backed Under | 33c | 53.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 43c | 48.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 68c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 54c | 32.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2787…ed8dbacked Over | 66c | 29.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 45c | 29.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…0b88backed Over | 49c | 28.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 47c | 25.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 46c | 24.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…e61dbacked Under | 46c | 23.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…3269backed Under | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -4.4wins | -0.34per pick | 72cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- NRFI: Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.