TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Washington Nationalsof Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,135
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,043

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,135 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedf0…1e2abacked Philadelphia Phillies53c6,137$3,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,252.855743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Washington Nationals70c6,136$4,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,851.692,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc345…2c35backed Philadelphia Phillies54c5,286$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,849.754740.4%19 W · 28 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Washington Nationals46c4,789$2,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,586.0465050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Philadelphia Phillies16c3,209$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.3888053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Philadelphia Phillies53c2,643$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.562951.7%15 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Washington Nationals47c2,489$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.11,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda0f…d41cbacked Philadelphia Phillies65c1,958$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.333855.3%21 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0163…e9ccbacked Philadelphia Phillies53c1,821$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfc…6762backed Washington Nationals47c1,085$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.281464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+35.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals43c1,005$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.084,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Washington Nationals47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53044451.1%227 W · 217 L+1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5305,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals35c972.22$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.9410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5318…1118backed Philadelphia Phillies53c916.79$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.96752.2%35 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9712…0c47backed Philadelphia Phillies35c766.48$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.6410240.2%41 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals51c734.68$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.839,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Washington Nationals47c635.49$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.8145246.2%209 W · 243 L-18.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Washington Nationals48c622.64$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.771,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Washington Nationals48c622.64$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.771,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b8e…b1babacked Philadelphia Phillies24c578.46$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Washington Nationals47c534.39$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.2365549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…72ebbacked Washington Nationals47c515$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.954231%13 W · 29 L-6.8wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-42.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Washington Nationals47c515$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.9528646.2%132 W · 154 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Washington Nationals47c489.27$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.3112552%65 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Philadelphia Phillies53c413.08$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.931,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Washington Nationals47c412$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.3637747.2%178 W · 199 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1030…dd7abacked Washington Nationals47c412$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.368246.3%38 W · 44 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals47c407.06$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.746,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Washington Nationals51c396.73$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.161,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals66c376.49$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.5212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Philadelphia Phillies53c291.54$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.5259150.3%297 W · 294 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1568…602cbacked Philadelphia Phillies53c291.54$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.521361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals68c280.72$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.675,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Washington Nationals47c213.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.121,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Washington Nationals47c206$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.1824348.1%117 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe193…466ebacked Washington Nationals48c201.83$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.952326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-41%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Philadelphia Phillies53c197.14$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4860350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf21…2ed8backed Philadelphia Phillies53c183.36$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.187153.5%38 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Philadelphia Phillies52c171.19$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0246547.1%219 W · 246 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Washington Nationals48c161.47$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9666551.1%340 W · 325 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Washington Nationals47c128.76$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2414444.4%64 W · 80 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Washington Nationals47c123.98$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.716647%31 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Philadelphia Phillies53c97.18$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5134145.2%154 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals54c95.43$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.96,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Philadelphia Phillies65c90.77$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7346557.2%266 W · 199 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Washington Nationals47c78.08$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3839351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc353…30a8backed Washington Nationals50c73.91$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9610449%51 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Washington Nationals57c70.27$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8766749.3%329 W · 338 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Washington Nationals48c60.55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4946659.7%278 W · 188 L+1.9wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Philadelphia Phillies19c60.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.471,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Washington Nationals49c59.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2756946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Philadelphia Phillies19c54.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.31,72250.3%867 W · 855 L+55.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3565…0b17backed Washington Nationals47c51.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.322450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Philadelphia Phillies44c50.21$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9242241%173 W · 249 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61e4…fb60backed Philadelphia Phillies52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.7wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-33.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfae5…f940backed Philadelphia Phillies52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2681651.8%423 W · 393 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Washington Nationals47c48.88$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9114442.4%61 W · 83 L-9.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6123…8b33backed Philadelphia Phillies53c47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9126853.7%144 W · 124 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd76…3269backed Washington Nationals78c46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.121338.5%5 W · 8 L-4.4wins-0.34per pick72cpaid-45.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Washington Nationals37c45.58$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7784122.7%191 W · 650 L-81.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb81e…8ab9backed Washington Nationals47c45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8547848.5%232 W · 246 L-15.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Philadelphia Phillies58c42.12$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.361,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50fd…ee77backed Washington Nationals48c40.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9933051.8%171 W · 159 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7307…b257backed Washington Nationals48c40.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.998158%47 W · 34 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68cc…e8c8backed Washington Nationals48c40.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9932647.9%156 W · 170 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…8f36backed Philadelphia Phillies53c36.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4411855.9%66 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Philadelphia Phillies53c36.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4470455%387 W · 317 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x387b…fd56backed Washington Nationals48c35.57$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.451741.2%7 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Washington Nationals48c34.49$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9332348.9%158 W · 165 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0138…8451backed Philadelphia Phillies53c33.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.779851%50 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Philadelphia Phillies40c33.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3887352.7%460 W · 413 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a4…5422backed Washington Nationals48c32.29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.795851.7%30 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Philadelphia Phillies53c28.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9984049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4acd…66d4backed Philadelphia Phillies53c27.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.714755.3%26 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Philadelphia Phillies48c22.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.769756.7%55 W · 42 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Washington Nationals66c18.91$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.