Movies · resolved market
Will Avengers: Doomsday Trailer get between 35 and 40 million views on Day 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb49aa2b4a31a6e49d52b08b62d2b75c1d552f5bd8f944636882f0eefc01a0609
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9bd2…b613backed Yes | 60c | 499.2$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 4c | 444.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 19c | 426.75$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 7c | 329.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 37c | 229.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.81 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 224$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 170$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked Yes | 53c | 170$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.38 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…e8e7backed Yes | 26c | 145.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…9177backed Yes | 78c | 81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…0495backed Yes | 79c | 63.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 23c | 47.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9975…0192backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…8cebbacked No | 52c | 29.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…a99abacked No | 56c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf947…016bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…e856backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Avengers: Doomsday Trailer get between 35 and 40 million views on Day 1?this page
- Will Avengers: Doomsday Trailer get at least 60 million views on Day 1?No won
- Will Avengers: Doomsday Trailer get between 40 and 45 million views on Day 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.