TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Golf · resolved market

Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Open Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,543
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,155

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,543 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Golf
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes4c28,747$1,041 inLost-$1,041.25277.4%2 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-62.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes4c3,251$120 inLost-$119.93425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes1c2,891$37 inLost-$36.96812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaafd…e0f2backed Yes4c1,389$50 inLost-$5070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3798…c24bbacked Yes4c1,210$43 inLost-$43.34911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7d2…f555backed Yes2c1,000$15 inLost-$1560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6a…3134backed Yes2c1,000$18 inLost-$1830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe65f…a749backed Yes4c989.89$35 inLost-$35.08140%0 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda58…7ba8backed Yes3c935$28 inLost-$28.192236.4%8 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x648c…09c6backed Yes4c658.16$25 inLost-$25313.2%1 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-94%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c595.06$10 inLost-$10.152953.7%11 W · 284 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes4c550$21 inLost-$20.9917.7%7 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-76.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85cf…51e8backed Yes4c512.82$20 inLost-$20175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-80.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf8…ba0dbacked Yes4c512.82$20 inLost-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick7cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5543…4195backed Yes3c435.9$15 inLost-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f4b…aba8backed Yes5c370.43$17 inLost-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa518…41e3backed No60c101$61 inWon+$40.4887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick62cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes40c101$40 inLost-$40.4812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick38cpaid-75.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.