Golf · resolved market
Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Open Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd488ca41f869029f9d554c5b0fafdc7df2d67b29c136c91bbc3d51fc6d1cc398
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $204,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $191,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $204,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Golf | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ef4…412cbacked Yes | 12c | 56,000$6,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,720 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +168.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Yes | 10c | 20,389$2,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,116.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 7c | 19,016$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.36 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Yes | 11c | 17,086$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.51 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 11c | 5,919$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.41 | 91 | 7.7%7 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 3c | 5,403$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.77 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 10c | 4,754$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.37 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 14c | 3,824$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.59 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 3c | 3,429$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.43 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes | 4c | 3,353$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.96 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…9801backed Yes | 3c | 3,238$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.91 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Yes | 11c | 3,167$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80e…fbabbacked Yes | 11c | 2,455$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe20…2042backed Yes | 6c | 1,840$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Yes | 2c | 1,804$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 3c | 1,522$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes | 12c | 1,070$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.32 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 11c | 1,031$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed Yes | 10c | 1,011$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.66 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…b328backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15a…49aebacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed Yes | 4c | 893.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafd…e0f2backed Yes | 11c | 837.73$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 4c | 827.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5387…c91ebacked Yes | 3c | 779.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 12c | 763$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 8c | 540.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 10c | 500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes | 4c | 473.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e2…f25abacked Yes | 4c | 453$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…5764backed Yes | 3c | 434$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Yes | 5c | 425.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 5c | 395$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 9c | 367.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1507…b5fdbacked Yes | 4c | 299$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc968…1f44backed Yes | 11c | 198$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8039…6b4bbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b7…ece2backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf8…ba0dbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e5…bc4ebacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…f912backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 136$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 295 | 3.7%11 W · 284 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…41e3backed No | 61c | 101$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 39c | 101$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6a…7e49backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Open Championship?this page
- Will Brian Harman win The 2025 Open Championship?No won
- Will Bryson DeChambeau win The 2025 Open Championship?No won
- Will Cameron Young win The 2025 Open Championship?No won
- Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 Open Championship?No won
- Will Jon Rahm win The 2025 Open Championship?No won
- Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 Open Championship?No won
- Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 Open Championship?No won
- Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Open Championship?No won
- Will Matt Fitzpatrick win The 2025 Open Championship?No won
- Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 Open Championship?No won
- Will Robert MacIntyre win The 2025 Open Championship?No won
- Will Russell Henley win The 2025 Open Championship?No won
- Will Sahith Theegala win The 2025 Open Championship?No won
- Will Sam Burns win The 2025 Open Championship?No won
- Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Open Championship?Yes won
- Will Tom Kim win The 2025 Open Championship?No won
- Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Open Championship?No won
- Will Tony Finau win The 2025 Open Championship?No won
- Will Tyrrell Hatton win The 2025 Open Championship?No won
- Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 Open Championship?No won
- Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 Open Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.