Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AEK Lárnakas vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4cefed0e875179403ad18f84dbfcf35bd866fa7c30f880accf07f5c223013b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8b8…36ddbacked No | 74c | 7,320$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,919.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Yes | 55c | 2,657$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.32 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 49c | 2,378$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.16 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 22c | 1,914$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.14 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 53c | 1,791$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.04 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 28c | 1,785$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Yes | 25c | 1,600$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 59c | 1,121$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.99 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…8dd7backed Yes | 28c | 931.36$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 51c | 827.99$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.94 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 26c | 745.5$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.83 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 63c | 542.53$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.14 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Yes | 29c | 499.98$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.99 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 60c | 400.88$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.96 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.85 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Yes | 29c | 350$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 70c | 276.02$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked No | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…719abacked Yes | 30c | 127.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 30c | 127.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 50c | 102.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c3…2020backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 71c | 92.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Yes | 25c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad07…001cbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 53c | 63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed No | 70c | 39.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked No | 71c | 38.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…f911backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x055f…8c40backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 50c | 23.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 71c | 20.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab6f…d737backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 77c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AEK Lárnakas vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem end in a draw?this page
- Will AEK Lárnakas win on 2026-07-23?No won
- Will MH Beitar Jerusalem win on 2026-07-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.