Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AEK Lárnakas win on 2026-07-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f810cea6d41feb72b6c8507a7213c28a87950c9da6be0fe1584c37a0257153c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed Yes | 46c | 7,395$3,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,372.22 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 58c | 5,408$3,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,259.61 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 36c | 3,024$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.75 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed No | 53c | 2,604$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.18 | 112 | 35.7%40 W · 72 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 36c | 1,510$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.56 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 62c | 1,381$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.88 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 53c | 1,306$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.81 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 1,199$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.36 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3f…5a9fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,181$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 46c | 1,078$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.94 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 57c | 876.18$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.32 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 55c | 664.75$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.67 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 43c | 572.29$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.56 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 54c | 555$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.3 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 54c | 555$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.3 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 53c | 550.57$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.52 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Yes | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 9c | 349.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed No | 54c | 337.5$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.8 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 53c | 299.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 46c | 229.93$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.77 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes | 53c | 226.88$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Yes | 47c | 211.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 54c | 196.91$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 53c | 188.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed No | 56c | 175.65$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.58 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 56c | 146.72$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 49c | 119.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 54c | 115.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Yes | 45c | 106.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeca…a1b7backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 22c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…b70cbacked Yes | 47c | 101.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Yes | 44c | 96.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 35c | 94.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed No | 54c | 91.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…c0fabacked No | 54c | 79.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 53c | 78.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 46c | 78.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Yes | 44c | 74.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 54c | 71.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked No | 53c | 61.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked No | 53c | 60.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…7c4cbacked No | 53c | 59.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005a…1349backed No | 55c | 55.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…38bcbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885e…08b8backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbef0…69c8backed Yes | 39c | 49.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 77c | 48.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d0…904ebacked No | 53c | 48.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f4…dd7cbacked No | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked No | 52c | 40.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 39.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…6e97backed No | 54c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 55c | 37.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…6c79backed No | 57c | 34.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c7…216abacked No | 56c | 27.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.9wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 61c | 27.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d9…37f9backed Yes | 47c | 23.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked No | 51c | 21.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 59c | 20.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AEK Lárnakas win on 2026-07-23?this page
- Will AEK Lárnakas vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem end in a draw?No won
- Will MH Beitar Jerusalem win on 2026-07-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.