Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will MH Beitar Jerusalem win on 2026-07-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed04728f14d9be7b624aea2f6c65ed18b1616e412708415beee3ce57afa2fc00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 2,450$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,662.36 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 27c | 1,853$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.97 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…203cbacked Yes | 27c | 929.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.63 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 73c | 779.62$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.06 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f20…b29fbacked Yes | 27c | 739.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 73c | 616$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.68 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa058…d8febacked No | 75c | 586.14$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 75c | 399.85$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.24 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 26c | 394.11$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.81 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…44b2backed Yes | 27c | 374.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd096…2f6fbacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…f11ebacked Yes | 24c | 325$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 8c | 314.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 71c | 312.5$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.8 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 71c | 272.78$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.46 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 73c | 188.3$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.46 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 33c | 161.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.81 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 74c | 125.8$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.62 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed Yes | 25c | 103.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.69 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…2be7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 73c | 89.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 26c | 88.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 74c | 80.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 75c | 72.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 16c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed No | 74c | 68.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 112 | 35.7%40 W · 72 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed No | 74c | 67.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 26c | 61.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 74c | 61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd852…6267backed Yes | 29c | 58.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 74c | 55.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a77…573abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4801…6de9backed Yes | 77c | 46.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…dba6backed Yes | 39c | 40.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb0…1f7bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 80c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 46c | 28.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 74c | 27.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…6c79backed No | 74c | 24.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab6f…d737backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 75c | 19.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will MH Beitar Jerusalem win on 2026-07-23?this page
- Will AEK Lárnakas vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem end in a draw?No won
- Will AEK Lárnakas win on 2026-07-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.