MLB · resolved market
Nationals vs. Braves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5757cb99c0d2196a6e7a7991c759585189491f7e3eb136da32c40f946f84124
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bravesof Nationals, Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5fb…84b5backed Nationals | 37c | 33,895$12,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,534.27 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Braves | 63c | 30,997$19,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,468.94 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…16f3backed Braves | 64c | 5,000$3,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.65 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals | 11c | 4,752$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.13 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Nationals | 37c | 4,492$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,661.87 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Braves | 62c | 4,397$2,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.52 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Nationals | 32c | 3,806$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.64 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Braves | 63c | 3,038$1,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.95 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965f…f167backed Braves | 63c | 1,675$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe788…1938backed Nationals | 38c | 1,675$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Nationals | 34c | 1,542$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.1 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…77bfbacked Braves | 62c | 1,401$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.36 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Nationals | 37c | 1,351$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Nationals | 19c | 1,236$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.1 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Nationals | 21c | 1,098$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.49 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Nationals | 37c | 952.48$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.42 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Braves | 76c | 808.68$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.08 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Nationals | 13c | 703.64$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Braves | 63c | 676.92$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.46 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Nationals | 37c | 673.17$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.07 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Nationals | 25c | 589.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.79 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Nationals | 39c | 518.03$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.03 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Nationals | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 623 | 46.2%288 W · 335 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Nationals | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Nationals | 18c | 355$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Nationals | 19c | 251.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Nationals | 36c | 231.08$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Nationals | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Nationals | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nationals | 37c | 194.69$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Nationals | 27c | 180$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Nationals | 20c | 173$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Braves | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Braves | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a95…2d06backed Nationals | 36c | 150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Nationals | 28c | 144.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0e80…db21backed Nationals | 39c | 115.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…ca1abacked Nationals | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Nationals | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Braves | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Braves | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Braves | 64c | 71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,055 | 50.3%531 W · 524 L | -10.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Braves | 63c | 69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Braves | 65c | 61.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x638c…607ebacked Nationals | 36c | 61.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Braves | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9026…bf0bbacked Braves | 62c | 51.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa954…bfdabacked Nationals | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7664…7867backed Braves | 62c | 46.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…fd11backed Braves | 64c | 44.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0650…a2eebacked Braves | 65c | 44.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Nationals | 38c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Nationals | 37c | 42.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…a91ebacked Nationals | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nationals | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Braves | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Braves | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3539…b17bbacked Braves | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…b028backed Nationals | 37c | 39.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x946b…5857backed Braves | 62c | 36.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…27f5backed Braves | 72c | 34.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc277…70c0backed Braves | 65c | 31.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe03…b864backed Nationals | 39c | 31.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…adf4backed Braves | 65c | 29.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…5321backed Braves | 65c | 26.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7220…1b9ebacked Braves | 62c | 24.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf759…e295backed Braves | 64c | 23.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b07…a0c7backed Braves | 64c | 22.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7620…b065backed Braves | 65c | 22.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c71…4148backed Braves | 62c | 22.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -49%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…2bb7backed Braves | 62c | 21.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 53cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8240…7ae0backed Braves | 68c | 21.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…cf33backed Braves | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Braves | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.