TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,518
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,518 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…9705backed Over24c2,243$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.618,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Over26c1,950$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.622,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under58c1,606$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.646,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under65c1,261$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.8912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Under80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2503574.3%26 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under74c1,205$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.344,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over28c853.7$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.065,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Over25c738.76$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.1697050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under73c606.07$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.632,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under77c584.4$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.412,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over19c515.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over51c437.99$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.23,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Over25c353.79$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.481,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over29c302.92$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0810,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Under77c293.2$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.592,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked Under73c239.73$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7331449.4%155 W · 159 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43f3…293cbacked Over17c224.36$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1419550.8%99 W · 96 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e5…6e53backed Under69c182.38$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.54875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+30.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over9c180$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.11,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under26c158.86$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.196,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cde…96e2backed Under49c143.91$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.394854.2%26 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over65c140.14$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.094,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed Over47c140$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.816057.5%92 W · 68 L+12.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Under73c134.24$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2459549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Under52c113.59$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.811,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e5f…6ee5backed Under49c102.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.037244.4%32 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under62c98.02$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.065,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Over25c89.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.591,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Under49c81.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6347549.7%236 W · 239 L+17.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13d0…4a70backed Over25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2034639.6%137 W · 209 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Over27c77.4$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.872,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Under49c71.43$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4354651.3%280 W · 266 L+29.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under74c65.78$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.12,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Under74c58.54$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2226063.8%166 W · 94 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over71c51$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.218,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Under72c40.81$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4344345.6%202 W · 241 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa31a…d023backed Under74c33.77$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.788744.8%39 W · 48 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5587…6d07backed Under52c28.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6751656.6%292 W · 224 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under74c26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.761,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under45c25.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.891,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1bda…8254backed Under76c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.958966.3%59 W · 30 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf610…741cbacked Under73c23.44$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2925357.3%145 W · 108 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.