MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x644d271d2dae0829368d91b145e15e77d4be5d7bbf488a5b89db688c0424f0c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Angels | 41c | 7,042$2,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,915.11 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 4,558$2,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,902.99 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 3,801$1,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,899.44 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 50c | 3,240$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,604.55 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 1,556$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.31 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 1,141$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.26 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 448.35$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.36 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 66c | 392$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.09 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Los Angeles Angels | 44c | 314.86$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.18 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 266.35$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.98 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 264.34$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.83 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Los Angeles Angels | 41c | 263.96$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.22 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 234.93$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.85 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 190.07$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.36 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 44c | 177.76$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 162.05$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 158.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.95 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Los Angeles Angels | 27c | 110.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 98.53$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Los Angeles Angels | 52c | 88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 85.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Los Angeles Angels | 41c | 84.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 83.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Los Angeles Angels | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Los Angeles Angels | 46c | 69.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Los Angeles Angels | 52c | 69.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Los Angeles Angels | 48c | 62.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Los Angeles Angels | 46c | 60.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…cbffbacked Los Angeles Angels | 50c | 58.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Los Angeles Angels | 47c | 56.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 52.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…900ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 49c | 43.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 41.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Los Angeles Angels | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Los Angeles Angels | 50c | 34.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Los Angeles Angels | 46c | 34.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Los Angeles Angels | 48c | 29.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 29.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 27.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2a…7682backed Los Angeles Angels | 49c | 27.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 24.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 22.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 19.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles AngelsTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.