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MLB · resolved market

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,708
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,708 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x762e…4bf0backed Under60c4,554$2,733 inLost-$2,732.625451.2%130 W · 124 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over40c3,640$1,454 inWon+$2,186.1911,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under70c2,365$1,643 inLost-$1,643.4512,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over37c1,431$525 inWon+$905.538,68252.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L+505.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Over34c1,082$373 inWon+$709.2388550.4%446 W · 439 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over33c1,066$355 inWon+$711.262,17551.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L+54.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over33c1,036$347 inWon+$689.535,18254.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L+227.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under61c806.54$492 inLost-$491.996,13255.4%3,395 W · 2,737 L+346.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under62c364.61$226 inLost-$225.932,59761.5%1,596 W · 1,001 L+72.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Over39c281.26$109 inWon+$171.941,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Over24c164$39 inWon+$124.642,20040.2%884 W · 1,316 L+3.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over46c120.04$55 inWon+$65.064,44545%2,001 W · 2,444 L+87.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71d1…a991backed Under65c114.64$74 inLost-$74.54951%25 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Under59c107.62$64 inLost-$63.7297050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Under59c102.67$61 inLost-$60.571,74549.1%857 W · 888 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe2f0…78cfbacked Under69c94.2$65 inLost-$652860.7%17 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under57c81.96$47 inLost-$46.722,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Under56c76.78$43 inLost-$4359549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under59c76$45 inLost-$44.75,86143.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L-190.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under63c75.8$47 inLost-$47.381,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under54c74.93$40 inLost-$40.463,46751.2%1,775 W · 1,692 L+105.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Over39c74.06$29 inWon+$45.4627652.9%146 W · 130 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under59c70.99$42 inLost-$41.891,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1137…cbffbacked Under51c58.81$30 inLost-$29.992751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed Under60c54.99$33 inLost-$3335248%169 W · 183 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Over44c53.69$24 inWon+$30.052,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Under60c50.21$30 inLost-$29.9944345.6%202 W · 241 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3e6…ef53backed Over44c50$22 inWon+$281752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb922…1d3ebacked Under71c42.25$30 inLost-$303959%23 W · 16 L-0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over44c40.91$18 inWon+$22.911,00157.3%574 W · 427 L+2.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Over41c40$16 inWon+$23.677836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Under64c19.35$12 inLost-$12.392,15350.2%1,080 W · 1,073 L+27.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under59c18.92$11 inLost-$11.161,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under59c18$11 inLost-$10.623,23151.2%1,655 W · 1,576 L+148.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.