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Premier League · resolved market

Newcastle United FC vs. Liverpool FC: Newcastle United FC O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,458
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,856

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,458 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 6 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc291…5d74backed Over25c703.25$176 inLost-$175.881,78634.9%623 W · 1,163 L-34.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…d743backed Over17c582.76$97 inLost-$977332.9%24 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf640…02b1backed Under73c390.14$285 inWon+$105.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Over15c276$41 inLost-$41.411817.8%21 W · 97 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Over13c99.99$13 inLost-$13742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x471c…9e94backed Under78c19.23$15 inWon+$4.232343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid0%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.