NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb602ecfc030aa9bbe0dbf8c043fac91de9a2f5742f99eec8b2df5081163f07cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Rockets, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,769 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a3a…eb9abacked Heat | 54c | 31,526$17,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,502.26 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Rockets | 46c | 11,945$5,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,494.75 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Rockets | 46c | 9,996$4,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,644.49 | 286 | 49.7%142 W · 144 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Rockets | 46c | 7,203$3,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,313.38 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x144e…eca0backed Rockets | 47c | 6,383$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Heat | 54c | 1,792$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.5 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat | 53c | 1,515$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.63 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Heat | 49c | 1,003$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.55 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Rockets | 46c | 872.9$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.02 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Heat | 55c | 630.29$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.63 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rockets | 45c | 614.29$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.43 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Heat | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…ed2bbacked Rockets | 45c | 325.28$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…0901backed Rockets | 48c | 269.85$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.53 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Rockets | 47c | 265$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.55 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Rockets | 46c | 227.08$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.72 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Heat | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81f…2fd6backed Rockets | 46c | 151$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Heat | 48c | 137.22$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.21 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Heat | 44c | 120.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…1af9backed Heat | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Rockets | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Heat | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 112 | 61.6%69 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Heat | 50c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 53c | 68.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Rockets | 55c | 66.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03a…d7c4backed Heat | 56c | 50.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Rockets | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e8…2c0ebacked Heat | 52c | 38.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 231 | 45.9%106 W · 125 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Rockets | 47c | 32.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Rockets | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rockets | 54c | 29.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Rockets | 45c | 29.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x34bb…0db5backed Rockets | 47c | 22.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Heat | 54c | 21.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)this page
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Heat vs. RocketsRockets won
- Heat vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Heat vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.