NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f0dc911e02f2e0dc46ce26ae4975cf11cd340efeac39c100ab79a794c8bfc43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,472 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 6,611$3,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,527.09 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 47c | 4,200$1,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,226 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 47c | 1,916$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.48 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 72c | 826.64$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.44 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 28c | 652.59$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.09 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 30c | 376.67$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.79 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 342.7$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.02 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 44c | 320$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.2 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 44c | 160$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 57c | 121.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 42c | 107.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.67 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…049abacked Over | 44c | 102.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 180 | 54.4%98 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 53c | 98.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 46c | 92.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 47c | 90.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 447 | 47%210 W · 237 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 42c | 85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 56c | 82.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362a…8683backed Over | 45c | 79.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Under | 58c | 78.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…0d7cbacked Under | 59c | 74.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 42c | 70.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 56c | 69.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 47c | 61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over | 45c | 43.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Under | 55c | 40.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 198 | 51%101 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 41c | 40.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 44c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 45c | 34.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e8…2c0ebacked Under | 60c | 33.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 231 | 45.9%106 W · 125 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…029dbacked Over | 44c | 32.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2d…cd74backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 64.2%79 W · 44 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 54c | 21.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…5734backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…b090backed Under | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b61…78e8backed Over | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5this page
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Heat vs. RocketsRockets won
- Heat vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Heat vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.