NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 117.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa43695aeb34dc606119b50d66bcfb41b686bfb2488c43c79ce99e609f5ab6acf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,919 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 51c | 1,848$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.26 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 51c | 1,759$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.9 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Under | 49c | 1,629$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.34 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Under | 49c | 1,127$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb4…90f3backed Under | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 53c | 380.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.87 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 49c | 220$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…a39dbacked Over | 50c | 186$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 114 | 53.5%61 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…1e38backed Under | 51c | 105.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Over | 51c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 288 | 52.1%150 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 64.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 48c | 46.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Under | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 273 | 45.1%123 W · 150 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Under | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 329 | 47.4%156 W · 173 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Over | 50c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086a…0855backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 51c | 30.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…e980backed Under | 50c | 30.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaace…915dbacked Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Over | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 400 | 48.3%193 W · 207 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 361 | 53.5%193 W · 168 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 117.5this page
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Heat vs. RocketsRockets won
- Heat vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Heat vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.