NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48cc25145395105ce821d90b4d86ca8ff5d85f7f89e239fbddc1ce655bb85eb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,012 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 14,514$6,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,513.6 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 52c | 6,372$3,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,058.77 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Over | 54c | 6,347$3,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,919.83 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 5,396$2,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,510.34 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 48c | 4,547$2,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,182.57 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 52c | 4,444$2,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,133.11 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Over | 57c | 4,075$2,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,738.83 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…249bbacked Under | 48c | 2,510$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 62c | 2,408$1,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.56 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 59c | 1,940$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.34 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 43c | 1,889$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.99 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 52c | 1,730$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.4 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 54c | 1,504$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 56c | 976.84$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.81 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…9992backed Over | 53c | 821$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.87 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 43c | 660.73$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.11 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 47c | 613.17$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.19 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 54c | 505.69$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.79 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…32aabacked Over | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…03e9backed Over | 56c | 470.4$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.84 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf469…dcaabacked Under | 46c | 445.93$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.13 | 221 | 54.8%121 W · 100 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Under | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 52c | 306.03$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.89 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 47c | 287.51$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.41 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 53c | 256$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.32 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 54c | 253.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.14 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 56c | 247.52$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.91 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed Over | 68c | 221.28$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 274 | 62%170 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 32c | 218.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.53 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 34c | 211.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Over | 56c | 131.33$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 180 | 52.2%94 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 48c | 123.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 71c | 103.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 188 | 50.5%95 W · 93 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 44c | 98.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 41c | 91.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 150 | 38%57 W · 93 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…dc1fbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 37c | 69.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…fcd8backed Over | 56c | 67.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 250 | 49.6%124 W · 126 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed Over | 63c | 64.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 52c | 63.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…0920backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b92cbacked Under | 46c | 56.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…91d5backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 46c | 46.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x087f…2ebfbacked Over | 58c | 40.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…37d5backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Under | 44c | 24.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 47c | 23.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Under | 49c | 22.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Under | 47c | 21.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…5734backed Over | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…4132backed Over | 53c | 18.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5this page
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Heat vs. RocketsRockets won
- Heat vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Heat vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.