Tennis · resolved market
ATP Cincinnati - Davidovich Fokina vs. Fonseca
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb615225930ab7ad4957eba53543f04a6f0c5634f21c0fc530086acd3f87b3946
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fonsecaof Fokina, Fonseca
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $335,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $439,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $335,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ef4…412cbacked Fonseca | 51c | 93,826$47,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,831.78 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Fokina | 48c | 52,220$25,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,065.71 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Fonseca | 49c | 26,535$12,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,663.99 | 139 | 34.5%48 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Fokina | 61c | 21,572$13,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,184.55 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Fokina | 51c | 11,592$5,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,952.82 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Fokina | 58c | 9,163$5,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,292.06 | 672 | 49.6%333 W · 339 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa421…8c83backed Fokina | 59c | 5,122$3,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,022.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Fokina | 59c | 4,597$2,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,693.89 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Fokina | 21c | 4,240$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.23 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Fokina | 13c | 2,900$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…d3d0backed Fokina | 59c | 2,376$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,394.27 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Fonseca | 42c | 1,754$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.01 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Fokina | 55c | 1,681$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.61 | 98 | 41.8%41 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Fonseca | 75c | 1,563$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.2 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Fokina | 51c | 1,448$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.89 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0b…2305backed Fokina | 51c | 1,441$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.27 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Fonseca | 48c | 1,391$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.21 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Fonseca | 49c | 1,250$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.63 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Fonseca | 46c | 1,218$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.95 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Fokina | 52c | 1,101$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.41 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…5279backed Fonseca | 45c | 1,092$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.27 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Fonseca | 45c | 1,000$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.1 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Fokina | 53c | 980.44$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.46 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Fokina | 23c | 936.11$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.5 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Fonseca | 42c | 849.98$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.99 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +9.1wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +2,130.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Fonseca | 54c | 797.93$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.33 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed Fokina | 49c | 789.01$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.67 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Fonseca | 42c | 752.58$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.5 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Fokina | 55c | 700$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Fonseca | 43c | 697.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.41 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Fonseca | 47c | 670.67$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.51 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2719…28ddbacked Fonseca | 26c | 596.28$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.62 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Fokina | 35c | 528$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.43 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Fokina | 58c | 463.29$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.71 | 284 | 51.1%145 W · 139 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Fokina | 55c | 455$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.25 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Fonseca | 33c | 401.04$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.46 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Fonseca | 36c | 370$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.7 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…62ccbacked Fokina | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…3464backed Fokina | 58c | 315.52$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Fokina | 56c | 250.47$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.56 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Fonseca | 47c | 240$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.9 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…6ecebacked Fokina | 60c | 235$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Fonseca | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Fonseca | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Fokina | 55c | 221.26$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.66 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Fonseca | 46c | 200.37$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Fokina | 53c | 199.97$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Fonseca | 41c | 199.67$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…482cbacked Fokina | 56c | 199.45$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.52 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Fokina | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Fokina | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -13.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Fokina | 57c | 155.42$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…0a10backed Fonseca | 56c | 146.34$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed Fokina | 56c | 132.22$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f7…facbbacked Fokina | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…c5f2backed Fonseca | 47c | 110.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Fonseca | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Fokina | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…403dbacked Fonseca | 46c | 91.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eeb…4286backed Fonseca | 43c | 90.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Fokina | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…2937backed Fonseca | 45c | 89.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5553…3de1backed Fokina | 58c | 89.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec00…f896backed Fonseca | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…cb71backed Fokina | 58c | 62.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Fokina | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…c05fbacked Fokina | 55c | 47.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Fokina | 54c | 41.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Fokina | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Fokina | 54c | 38.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…85b7backed Fokina | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Fokina | 59c | 33.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Fokina | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1212…a9f0backed Fokina | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…c992backed Fonseca | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Fokina | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…550abacked Fokina | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.