Fifa International · resolved market
Raphinha: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb668b227f570c906708ff9959954dcfe2c57e777238e63542f02fc4ab2985219
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 68c | 1,608$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.68 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed No | 70c | 1,478$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.1 | 144 | 49.3%71 W · 73 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 69c | 636.3$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.34 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d4…74dabacked Yes | 30c | 613.07$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 68c | 503.13$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 165 | 64.2%106 W · 59 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Yes | 32c | 500.33$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.11 | 142 | 26.8%38 W · 104 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cd…2eedbacked Yes | 31c | 483.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd220…fc0bbacked Yes | 32c | 468.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 78c | 338.59$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.49 | 311 | 71.4%222 W · 89 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 7c | 328.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…4d84backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…be77backed Yes | 34c | 315.76$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 7c | 285.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes | 30c | 246.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb4…481dbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…3ec8backed Yes | 30c | 211.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 255 | 32.9%84 W · 171 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 68c | 207.12$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 707 | 50.1%354 W · 353 L | +25.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 73c | 175.24$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…e818backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd977…2dc4backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…ac88backed Yes | 30c | 153.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 68c | 113.01$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 245 | 41.2%101 W · 144 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…7cc9backed No | 67c | 103.64$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed No | 68c | 90.94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c73…e2ebbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 667 | 45%300 W · 367 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed No | 73c | 61.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…47a4backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e9…00f8backed Yes | 34c | 58.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d8…2e25backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb210…11bcbacked Yes | 47c | 51.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a65…5864backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x895c…c28cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 38.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…753abacked Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…36dbbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 74c | 26.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 67c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raphinha: 1+ goalsthis page
- Abde Ezzalzouli: 1+ shotsNo won
- Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goalsNo won
- Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ goalsNo won
- Brahim Díaz: 1+ goalsNo won
- Casemiro: 1+ goalsNo won
- Endrick: 1+ goalsNo won
- Endrick: 2+ goalsNo won
- Endrick: 3+ goalsNo won
- Igor Thiago: 1+ goalsNo won
- Igor Thiago: 2+ goalsNo won
- Ismael Saibari: 1+ goalsYes won
- Matheus Cunha: 1+ goalsNo won
- Neymar Jr: 1+ goalsNo won
- Raphinha: 1+ assistsNo won
- Raphinha: 2+ goalsNo won
- Raphinha: 3+ shotsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assistsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goalsYes won
- Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.