NFL · resolved market
Spread: Rams (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb738bbe419c6807fdfcbe9251c6cacdf2bbe0fec23b8d6a98aea5974c247bab3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ramsof Rams, 49ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Rams | 58c | 8,935$5,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,764.25 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked 49ers | 41c | 7,000$2,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,870 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked 49ers | 45c | 2,050$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.49 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Rams | 53c | 1,433$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.6 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed 49ers | 43c | 1,255$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.68 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked 49ers | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked 49ers | 43c | 840$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.65 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Rams | 59c | 775.28$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.86 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Rams | 60c | 606.03$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.22 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Rams | 58c | 524.24$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.42 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked 49ers | 42c | 311.67$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.9 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed 49ers | 49c | 260$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed 49ers | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…6632backed 49ers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Rams | 49c | 170$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Rams | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed 49ers | 40c | 166.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Rams | 55c | 139.31$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked 49ers | 49c | 112.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Rams | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked 49ers | 49c | 97.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Rams | 55c | 94.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Rams | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Rams | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…a2a1backed Rams | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Rams | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked 49ers | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked 49ers | 48c | 43.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked 49ers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Rams | 53c | 37.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Rams | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed 49ers | 41c | 31.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f24…46cebacked Rams | 57c | 29.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed 49ers | 43c | 28.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed 49ers | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x262a…fcedbacked Rams | 53c | 25.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Rams | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rams (-3.5)this page
- Rams vs. 49ersRams won
- Rams vs. 49ers: O/U 48.5Over won
- Rams vs. 49ers: O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Rams (-4.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-5.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-6.5)Rams won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.