NFL · resolved market
Spread: Rams (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a6ad3dcc0a3f9b4341679e5c3e569c0327f8a11d314f8e787c9868d82eaf772
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ramsof Rams, 49ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $182,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Rams | 48c | 172,233$82,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89,561.11 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed 49ers | 52c | 109,395$56,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,885.36 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed 49ers | 52c | 30,000$15,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,600 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed 49ers | 52c | 16,635$8,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,650 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed 49ers | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,199.99 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed 49ers | 52c | 8,000$4,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,160 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Rams | 48c | 5,363$2,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,789.3 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked 49ers | 52c | 1,077$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed 49ers | 51c | 1,045$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.94 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…98e3backed 49ers | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Rams | 47c | 859.6$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.59 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…5ec0backed 49ers | 52c | 673.08$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Rams | 49c | 530.61$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.61 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Rams | 48c | 505$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.6 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Rams | 59c | 369.33$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.19 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…9d80backed 49ers | 52c | 332.96$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.14 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rams | 46c | 259.26$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked 49ers | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed 49ers | 37c | 246.42$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.16 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed 49ers | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked 49ers | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed 49ers | 53c | 189.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a0…2b5bbacked 49ers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked 49ers | 52c | 159.33$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed 49ers | 52c | 140.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed 49ers | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Rams | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed 49ers | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…6632backed 49ers | 53c | 93.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed 49ers | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Rams | 48c | 77.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…ba65backed 49ers | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed 49ers | 53c | 74.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked 49ers | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c96…3485backed 49ers | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4efb…76a0backed 49ers | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Rams | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed 49ers | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d23…b55bbacked Rams | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea2…fe7ebacked Rams | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398a…95b7backed Rams | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed 49ers | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Rams | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…75a1backed 49ers | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rams (-6.5)this page
- Rams vs. 49ersRams won
- Rams vs. 49ers: O/U 48.5Over won
- Rams vs. 49ers: O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Rams (-3.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-4.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-5.5)Rams won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.