NFL · resolved market
Rams vs. 49ers: O/U 49.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02be173c4b9011ec984e8284d59cdd9d26c549706820ff18aa8d5d811ffc7793
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 17,760$9,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,147.64 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 13,663$6,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,036.38 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 51c | 4,679$2,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,386.15 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 50c | 4,322$2,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,173.67 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 49c | 2,793$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.43 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 49c | 1,223$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.82 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Under | 51c | 1,200$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.93 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 39c | 1,194$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.61 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Under | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.99 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 936$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.72 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 50c | 765.02$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.39 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 48c | 711.92$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.2 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Over | 49c | 582.26$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.95 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 48c | 391.34$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.5 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 48c | 329.23$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.63 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…9d25backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Over | 49c | 281.24$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.43 | 145 | 50.3%73 W · 72 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 58c | 260$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 49c | 162$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 49c | 130$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba5…6ff7backed Over | 51c | 107$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf665…8298backed Under | 50c | 106$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…1dafbacked Over | 51c | 105$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…3a31backed Under | 50c | 104$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x980e…bc50backed Under | 50c | 103$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4e…c584backed Over | 51c | 102$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…70e2backed Under | 50c | 101$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596b…6c22backed Over | 51c | 101$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…de9cbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd863…6905backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe251…3575backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d89…3e65backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa88…b48bbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…1d43backed Over | 51c | 99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad3…377fbacked Under | 50c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f78…c245backed Over | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…cf90backed Under | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ed…7971backed Under | 50c | 96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa3…a86fbacked Over | 51c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d6…9e5bbacked Under | 50c | 94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…7377backed Over | 51c | 93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f24…46cebacked Under | 52c | 32.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7895…ed15backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x262a…fcedbacked Under | 52c | 25.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x868f…4806backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rams vs. 49ers: O/U 49.5this page
- Rams vs. 49ersRams won
- Rams vs. 49ers: O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: Rams (-3.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-4.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-5.5)Rams won
- Spread: Rams (-6.5)Rams won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.