Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb749772b1fe8e3fc754204ef3af85095ef56dd54b2723e1d9d52491f9bad2b51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 55c | 1,514$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.18 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 525.79$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 59c | 491.84$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.16 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 57c | 386.3$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.57 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 304.21$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 281.65$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 44c | 260.77$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.79 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 253.67$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 49c | 210.22$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.26 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 40c | 209.85$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.45 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c28…66b0backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 60c | 198.59$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 44c | 190.52$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 43c | 167$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 49c | 147.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 20c | 124.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 41c | 122.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 49c | 117.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 43c | 109.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 104.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 41c | 103.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 61c | 98.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 52c | 94.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 50c | 93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 35c | 89.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 81.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 81.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 64c | 79.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 40c | 77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 75.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 49c | 72.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 68.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 32c | 66.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 64.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 75c | 64.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 63.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 44c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 49c | 53.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 48.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 48.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 45c | 48.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 48c | 47.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 51c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…36d6backed Yes | 47c | 39.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b88…63dfbacked Yes | 43c | 38.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 47c | 38.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8605backed Yes | 63c | 37.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 55c | 37.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 34c | 37.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 50c | 36.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 50c | 36.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 52c | 32.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 38c | 32.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 43c | 32.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 44c | 30.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 71c | 28.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 51c | 24.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 50c | 24.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 24.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…5bb8backed Yes | 79c | 22.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…0c74backed No | 53c | 20.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x020c…f6c9backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…270cbacked Yes | 68c | 16.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.