Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaa7fea7509210b747e274d214f5bdd1e0e42937a8190c116e127621b08484d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 29c | 6,280$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,806.37 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 4,000$2,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.11 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed No | 71c | 1,175$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.04 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 33c | 417.69$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.9 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 350.06$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.47 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 334.83$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 213.04$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 31c | 164.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 119.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 118.81$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…3e57backed Yes | 28c | 108.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 104.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 39c | 101.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 29c | 99.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 72c | 98.86$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 36c | 95.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 94.11$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 25c | 73.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 25c | 72.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 64.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 34c | 60.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 31c | 60.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 60.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 71c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 18c | 58.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 34c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 21c | 52.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 49.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 47.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 72c | 44.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…057ebacked Yes | 33c | 43.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 41.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…36d6backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 37.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 32c | 36.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 35.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 29c | 35.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d6…b907backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 74c | 33.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 30.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ef…69aabacked No | 69c | 29.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 29.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 29.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 29.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 71c | 27.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 27.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 26.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 71c | 24.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 24.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 24.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 70c | 20.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 74c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 69c | 20.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 18.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1c…dbcebacked No | 69c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 67c | 15.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 75c | 15.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b02…2433backed No | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.