Tennis · resolved market
Adelaide International: Reilly Opelka vs Tommy Paul
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb78003ba3b57067e285fd11a1c4776c0deb02c2eb9bd17c76c2a6986c9808d22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paulof Opelka, Paul
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x437c…f458backed Opelka | 40c | 7,000$2,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,796.81 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Paul | 60c | 5,948$3,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,379.07 | 220 | 37.7%83 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Paul | 78c | 5,439$4,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.86 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Opelka | 39c | 2,641$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.99 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Opelka | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Paul | 62c | 1,500$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.5 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Paul | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 192 | 41.1%79 W · 113 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Opelka | 37c | 1,395$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.97 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Paul | 63c | 1,385$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.45 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Opelka | 42c | 1,301$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.88 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…c1f1backed Opelka | 39c | 1,300$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.99 | 182 | 37.9%69 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Paul | 68c | 1,221$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.46 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Paul | 61c | 1,094$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.83 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Opelka | 38c | 1,010$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.74 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Opelka | 7c | 915.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Opelka | 38c | 912.43$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.72 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Paul | 61c | 895$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.05 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Opelka | 5c | 863.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Paul | 61c | 831$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.09 | 872 | 51.1%446 W · 426 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Opelka | 13c | 500$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 580 | 21.9%127 W · 453 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked Opelka | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Paul | 60c | 468$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.7 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Opelka | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Paul | 66c | 348.57$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.79 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Paul | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Opelka | 39c | 306.67$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Paul | 72c | 303.6$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Paul | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Opelka | 36c | 277.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Opelka | 19c | 228.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Opelka | 5c | 199.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c66…ed0cbacked Paul | 61c | 184.48$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf6…e73abacked Opelka | 39c | 184$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…9b53backed Paul | 61c | 182.85$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.31 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Opelka | 40c | 180$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Opelka | 31c | 179.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Opelka | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Opelka | 34c | 123.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked Opelka | 20c | 107.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Opelka | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Opelka | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 341 | 54.3%185 W · 156 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…3f46backed Paul | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 50 | 74%37 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Opelka | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 139 | 34.5%48 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Opelka | 40c | 98.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Paul | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Opelka | 39c | 79.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 491 | 42.8%210 W · 281 L | -15.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Paul | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Paul | 62c | 79.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Opelka | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 248 | 26.2%65 W · 183 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Paul | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 128 | 46.9%60 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x903b…b22bbacked Paul | 61c | 71.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…ae19backed Paul | 61c | 64.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Opelka | 39c | 57.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213a…c46dbacked Opelka | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0a…7898backed Paul | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c60…2227backed Opelka | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -10.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Opelka | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…e98fbacked Paul | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Paul | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +10.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Opelka | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…e7d4backed Paul | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Opelka | 39c | 37.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…2145backed Opelka | 39c | 32.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…dfb9backed Paul | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5112…fb73backed Paul | 61c | 31.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Paul | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 361 | 61.8%223 W · 138 L | +41.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f01…672cbacked Paul | 61c | 29.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Paul | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Paul | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Paul | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Paul | 61c | 16.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Paul | 61c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21e…297bbacked Paul | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide International: Reilly Opelka vs Tommy Paulthis page
- Opelka vs. Paul: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Opelka vs PaulPaul won
- Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Opelka (+1.5)Paul won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.