Euroleague · resolved market
Bilbao Basket vs. Real Madrid
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7b4d91aeb2b5b5e0da09acce19186db6c033f5b61f7f806ae8fa9b94c85117a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bilbao Basketof Bilbao Basket, Real Madrid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Real Madrid | 54c | 2,746$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.66 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Bilbao Basket | 46c | 2,205$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.76 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Real Madrid | 77c | 1,939$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2768…2e81backed Real Madrid | 69c | 1,584$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Bilbao Basket | 49c | 1,011$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.75 | 132 | 20.5%27 W · 105 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Bilbao Basket | 31c | 867.08$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.94 | 370 | 52.7%195 W · 175 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…647abacked Real Madrid | 72c | 708.12$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.2 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Real Madrid | 70c | 681.16$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.89 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bilbao Basket | 28c | 602.54$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.58 | 352 | 34.7%122 W · 230 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff6…d1fdbacked Real Madrid | 78c | 599.03$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.32 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…0f54backed Real Madrid | 69c | 504.98$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.44 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c8…d919backed Real Madrid | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Bilbao Basket | 27c | 419.86$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.88 | 215 | 35.8%77 W · 138 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Bilbao Basket | 24c | 418.32$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Bilbao Basket | 38c | 365.79$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.01 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Bilbao Basket | 24c | 335.8$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.89 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c2…e9bfbacked Bilbao Basket | 31c | 333$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Bilbao Basket | 32c | 324.38$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.33 | 269 | 35.3%95 W · 174 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Real Madrid | 60c | 265.32$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.17 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Bilbao Basket | 32c | 241.87$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.47 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Bilbao Basket | 31c | 241.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Real Madrid | 68c | 240.47$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.71 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…d5f8backed Real Madrid | 6c | 234.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Real Madrid | 70c | 233.73$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.9 | 214 | 44.4%95 W · 119 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…9927backed Bilbao Basket | 19c | 205.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +245.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Bilbao Basket | 27c | 182.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Bilbao Basket | 33c | 181.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x141f…7711backed Bilbao Basket | 20c | 172.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +406.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Bilbao Basket | 74c | 164.19$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Real Madrid | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Real Madrid | 69c | 140$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Real Madrid | 69c | 139.85$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Bilbao Basket | 33c | 138.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0650…865cbacked Bilbao Basket | 36c | 130.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe378…148ebacked Real Madrid | 73c | 125.79$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…1a45backed Bilbao Basket | 31c | 119.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Bilbao Basket | 30c | 114.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Bilbao Basket | 51c | 105.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 316 | 51.6%163 W · 153 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…328fbacked Real Madrid | 48c | 103.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Real Madrid | 72c | 102$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e11…9f74backed Real Madrid | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62be…444cbacked Bilbao Basket | 48c | 101.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Bilbao Basket | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Bilbao Basket | 33c | 99.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…8597backed Real Madrid | 52c | 96.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb4…90f3backed Bilbao Basket | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Real Madrid | 63c | 81.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Bilbao Basket | 40c | 75.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5c…c29bbacked Bilbao Basket | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Real Madrid | 54c | 74.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x651e…b67bbacked Real Madrid | 65c | 65.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…899bbacked Bilbao Basket | 26c | 65.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 209 | 36.4%76 W · 133 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Bilbao Basket | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed Bilbao Basket | 26c | 62.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Bilbao Basket | 30c | 56.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 435 | 43.7%190 W · 245 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Real Madrid | 71c | 54.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…643cbacked Bilbao Basket | 48c | 46.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…a1bfbacked Real Madrid | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Real Madrid | 69c | 43.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Bilbao Basket | 43c | 38.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43f…3b20backed Real Madrid | 51c | 33.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Bilbao Basket | 36c | 29.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf5…e0d5backed Real Madrid | 57c | 27.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Bilbao Basket | 40c | 27.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 255 | 17.6%45 W · 210 L | -29.4wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d88…e709backed Real Madrid | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…531fbacked Real Madrid | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Real Madrid | 53c | 22.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05dc…5df8backed Real Madrid | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Real Madrid | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Real Madrid | 52c | 19.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Real Madrid | 59c | 18.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Real Madrid | 58c | 17.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1818…2c75backed Real Madrid | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…bdf9backed Real Madrid | 71c | 14.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.