Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7ec3539aa3090dfa6bf93bb8f08096e5f74e53aee68e2b148d01876aea744f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 6c | 48,051$3,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,057.27 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 1c | 27,078$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.35 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 0c | 8,186$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 18c | 5,460$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.58 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…f2abbacked Yes | 15c | 3,163$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ec…4900backed Yes | 0c | 2,300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 1c | 1,479$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f9…0eaabacked Yes | 12c | 1,381$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.72 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Yes | 8c | 1,334$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed No | 68c | 1,175$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,059$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 68c | 955.39$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.83 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb95c…46c0backed No | 69c | 893.72$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 31c | 876.24$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.57 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e97…a3d7backed Yes | 32c | 863.28$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc587…1630backed No | 69c | 837.73$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.7 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c8…0cecbacked Yes | 12c | 789.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed No | 69c | 712.03$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.73 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5444…bbdabacked Yes | 13c | 678.04$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 31c | 618.45$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.72 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 16c | 596.59$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.45 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 24c | 581.89$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.18 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 69c | 519.96$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.19 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…53bcbacked Yes | 10c | 494.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f26…be98backed Yes | 26c | 487.28$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.35 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 69c | 395.64$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.65 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 8c | 358.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…4892backed Yes | 16c | 296.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Yes | 16c | 284.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Yes | 30c | 265.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 32c | 231.17$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Yes | 14c | 227.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 76c | 220$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…bdfbbacked Yes | 14c | 203.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Yes | 14c | 203.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 69c | 200$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…6b66backed Yes | 12c | 197.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe8…3684backed Yes | 32c | 191.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…3c27backed Yes | 31c | 190.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 16c | 189.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce5…a9fcbacked Yes | 31c | 160.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 69c | 159.33$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 67c | 156.03$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 32c | 149.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f6…7bd7backed No | 70c | 140.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5465…ba43backed No | 70c | 140.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…5898backed Yes | 14c | 135.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…5269backed Yes | 16c | 118.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8561…337bbacked Yes | 15c | 107.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Yes | 11c | 101$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd488…aa87backed Yes | 14c | 100.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 31c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…8687backed Yes | 15c | 99.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c10…2e23backed Yes | 32c | 95.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 68c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f11…3892backed Yes | 19c | 63.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes | 31c | 61.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x024b…85cabacked Yes | 32c | 59.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…4985backed Yes | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…1417backed Yes | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…7f38backed Yes | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…fef1backed Yes | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067e…625bbacked Yes | 33c | 58.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…5099backed Yes | 21c | 55.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 19c | 54.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a8…91fdbacked Yes | 26c | 51.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…5a1cbacked Yes | 31c | 45.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17b3…f8d4backed Yes | 32c | 45.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c7…1dfebacked Yes | 32c | 32.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…7916backed Yes | 31c | 32.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 65c | 30.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed No | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc942…a8a1backed No | 67c | 22.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked No | 69c | 19.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked No | 70c | 15.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-19?this page
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-04-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.