TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bilibili Gamingof Bilibili Gaming, Top Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$345,278
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$383,355

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $345,278 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1eb0…d25bbacked Top Esports12c24,128$2,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,853.6210446.2%48 W · 56 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c38…1218backed Top Esports19c19,551$3,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,805.4121448.1%103 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d35…0b94backed Top Esports15c17,779$2,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,623.112556%14 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x794e…4247backed Top Esports0c17,194$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3750%0 W · 75 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked Top Esports1c10,139$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.6418520.5%38 W · 147 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Top Esports1c7,332$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.23775.6%21 W · 356 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Bilibili Gaming67c6,087$4,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,008.7641752.5%219 W · 198 L+14.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2997…6c34backed Bilibili Gaming74c6,011$4,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.0110653.8%57 W · 49 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Top Esports32c5,571$1,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,782.7814839.2%58 W · 90 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Bilibili Gaming68c5,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60067552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Top Esports22c4,749$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.852,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd795…6fcdbacked Top Esports2c4,100$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9231435.7%112 W · 202 L+15.5wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Top Esports25c3,936$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.681,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Top Esports32c3,736$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.391,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Top Esports30c3,483$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.971,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c5…3094backed Bilibili Gaming70c3,471$2,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.331163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked Top Esports32c3,462$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.9310445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed07…886abacked Bilibili Gaming78c3,000$2,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.52360.9%14 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Bilibili Gaming68c2,939$2,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.221,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d69…7e98backed Top Esports15c2,600$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37918914.8%28 W · 161 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa707…4c69backed Top Esports16c2,506$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.46650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed Top Esports26c2,326$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.1131644.3%140 W · 176 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafda…0fccbacked Bilibili Gaming73c2,035$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.316654.8%91 W · 75 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f80…a594backed Top Esports3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60254%1 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-80%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Top Esports5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019239.1%75 W · 117 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b5b…4a17backed Top Esports7c2,000$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1354214.3%6 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked Top Esports29c1,703$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.4226645.9%122 W · 144 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x454f…04e7backed Top Esports37c1,588$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.56933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6077…ad46backed Bilibili Gaming63c1,588$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.561478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.6wins+0.26per pick53cpaid+44.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Bilibili Gaming68c1,550$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.089852%51 W · 47 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Top Esports30c1,530$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.921740.1%87 W · 130 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90f6…71eebacked Top Esports31c1,500$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.4914041.4%58 W · 82 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Top Esports28c1,490$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.0721350.2%107 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbea4…2effbacked Top Esports2c1,398$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.51933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e75…84a0backed Bilibili Gaming68c1,357$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.69650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x068f…3d7abacked Bilibili Gaming68c1,149$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.19862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb29…ea29backed Top Esports25c1,121$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.7612433.9%42 W · 82 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Bilibili Gaming70c1,034$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.061,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Top Esports33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3303,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Bilibili Gaming67c1,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33037641.8%157 W · 219 L-18.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d9f…787abacked Top Esports23c999.99$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23061045.2%276 W · 334 L+35.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Bilibili Gaming68c999.9$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.971,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa1…c691backed Top Esports25c933.51$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.3819839.9%79 W · 119 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Top Esports12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070752.9%374 W · 333 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Bilibili Gaming68c809.99$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.21,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd711…bbccbacked Bilibili Gaming75c800$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.862958.6%17 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41a6…0a89backed Top Esports30c800$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick50cpaid-67.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf35d…8a78backed Bilibili Gaming67c799.97$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.99862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+69.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08b3…48a9backed Bilibili Gaming64c784.39$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.381,02148%490 W · 531 L+26.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba3a…b49abacked Top Esports25c765.57$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19318053.3%96 W · 84 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Bilibili Gaming70c735.71$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.712,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Top Esports5c700$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530661.1%187 W · 119 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked Bilibili Gaming68c700$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22495847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb666…0dcbbacked Bilibili Gaming66c700$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2382650%13 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0588…8f18backed Top Esports30c699.99$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21025038%95 W · 155 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1e5…993cbacked Top Esports31c699.99$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2173246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Top Esports25c675.59$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.6896057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Top Esports7c666$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.621,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1dcd…fa2ebacked Top Esports8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed Bilibili Gaming79c600$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.7547953.2%255 W · 224 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Top Esports35c571.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20076639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Bilibili Gaming71c564.32$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.3240364.5%260 W · 143 L+0.8wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c3…8b21backed Bilibili Gaming75c519.95$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.993756.8%21 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed Bilibili Gaming80c500$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10145041.1%185 W · 265 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd81d…b365backed Bilibili Gaming78c499.99$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11026865.7%176 W · 92 L+13.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Bilibili Gaming69c499.73$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.7367549%331 W · 344 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bilibili Gaming77c457.33$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.1285046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Top Esports26c436.48$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.181,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Top Esports8c435$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Top Esports22c428.33$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2357947.3%274 W · 305 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34dc…df32backed Bilibili Gaming71c423.92$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.532060%12 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf1d…caadbacked Top Esports24c422.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009252.2%48 W · 44 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0002…103ebacked Bilibili Gaming70c420$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1269743.3%42 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Top Esports24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Bilibili Gaming77c415$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9553640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Bilibili Gaming75c401.21$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2115756.1%88 W · 69 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x060d…1094backed Bilibili Gaming80c400$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8020621.8%45 W · 161 L-18.1wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-50.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x217a…5dfabacked Bilibili Gaming77c389.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.647057.7%271 W · 199 L-27.3wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e78…29d0backed Bilibili Gaming80c375$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7524248.3%117 W · 125 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1892…b299backed Bilibili Gaming75c343.37$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.8417943.6%78 W · 101 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7d5…d4d3backed Bilibili Gaming76c340.79$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.797656.6%43 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2627…13b4backed Bilibili Gaming75c340.12$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.031850%9 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ddd…5366backed Bilibili Gaming72c330.07$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.6912060%72 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad4b…e93dbacked Top Esports31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011037.3%41 W · 69 L-0.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe343…5c31backed Top Esports16c317.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5031522.9%72 W · 243 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b87…75d0backed Bilibili Gaming66c315.76$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.368951.7%46 W · 43 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Bilibili Gaming71c304.88$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.1641644.2%184 W · 232 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Bilibili Gaming76c303.92$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.941,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2657…4af5backed Top Esports21c300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635836.2%21 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Bilibili Gaming68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9671249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed Top Esports19c275.92$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.42850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Top Esports25c274.34$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6414145.4%64 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7a0…05c4backed Top Esports37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10035035.1%123 W · 227 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Bilibili Gaming76c263$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.231,18352%615 W · 568 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x444e…1a78backed Top Esports31c260$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.61861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+39.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Bilibili Gaming69c252.48$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2755955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc1ca…eb95backed Bilibili Gaming68c250$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.52152.4%11 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce16…d66fbacked Top Esports33c242.18$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9225639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Bilibili Gaming75c241.33$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3356650%283 W · 283 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked Bilibili Gaming73c232.86$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.861,04846.1%483 W · 565 L-43.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.