Middle East · resolved market
Humanitarian airdrops over Gaza by August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8128f10037736606a5386439987b30139d1f8d031ca3c9f901d4c8862e67367
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 2,927$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 3c | 1,727$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 3c | 1,200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +10.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb044…87adbacked No | 21c | 969.01$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fd…c893backed No | 3c | 597.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 73c | 469.97$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.29 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8e…3abbbacked No | 16c | 421.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9e…a350backed Yes | 78c | 379$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.76 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x800c…e4c6backed No | 23c | 360.48$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…d077backed No | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 18c | 271.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 79c | 240$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4420…23c9backed No | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 7c | 179.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed Yes | 78c | 138.87$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 9c | 124.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6968…8600backed No | 25c | 115.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x406c…c58ebacked No | 19c | 102.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…52f9backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…1f26backed Yes | 78c | 84.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9218…51bebacked No | 23c | 78.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 19c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 21c | 73.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 74c | 73.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef4…e209backed No | 28c | 72.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5e…af8dbacked No | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed Yes | 78c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…1bbebacked No | 28c | 38.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.