Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8283452945193786d26ca332671a570181b4bf7372e968f62a6eaf951a37bc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 364.65$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 248$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 40c | 229.05$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.58 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 224.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x218d…fa00backed Yes | 30c | 182.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 39c | 164.9$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.95 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 154.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 134.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 124$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 121.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 20c | 117.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 30c | 115$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 60c | 97.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 76c | 94.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 92.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 28c | 89.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 89.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 31c | 77.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 63c | 73.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 27c | 73.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 39c | 68.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 67c | 67.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 66.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 23c | 60.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 65c | 59.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 42c | 52.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 23c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 49.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 49.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 44c | 46.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 74c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 60c | 45.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…7bcbbacked Yes | 47c | 42.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 37.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 36.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 33.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 32.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…fa69backed Yes | 41c | 31.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 60c | 27.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 27.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 63c | 26.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 73c | 23.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 19.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 72c | 18.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 61c | 17.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4937…fbd0backed No | 69c | 16.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 71c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 79c | 14.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 79c | 13.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.