Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5f0a11cd0b35f9a357c3e740b6858305513c7c510d92880ee54e4abcdf46d16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 1,176$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 35c | 900.09$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.2 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 44c | 638.87$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.35 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 295$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.82 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 247.73$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.57 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 69c | 242.49$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 51c | 225.17$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.55 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 42c | 215.01$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2660…afa2backed No | 79c | 188.83$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 180$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 44c | 171.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 167.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 156.64$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 39c | 148.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 43c | 139.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 134.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 36c | 126.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 126.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 23c | 122.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 63c | 114.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 104$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 39c | 102.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fc…7ac9backed Yes | 50c | 99.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 90.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 90.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 48c | 82.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 60c | 78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 73.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 69.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 44c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 29c | 64.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 43c | 58.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 44c | 55.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d11…f782backed Yes | 35c | 54.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 37c | 54.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 72c | 52.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 52.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 49.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 49c | 49.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 59c | 48.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 55c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 42c | 44.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 43.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 59c | 42.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 64c | 40.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 76c | 39.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 36.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 44c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 59c | 33.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 37c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 42c | 32.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 57c | 26.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 24.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 48c | 23.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked No | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 63c | 20.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23a…4a36backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.