Fifa International · resolved market
Michael Olise: 2+ assists
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb856b8040113a480bc17c6aefc12b99dae949acb19b6ade2891eb7cdeefe7bae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdcd2…0381backed Yes | 10c | 1,573$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.88 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e26…8991backed Yes | 10c | 1,030$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c29…efe5backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 73 | 15.1%11 W · 62 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…fe53backed Yes | 10c | 492$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.8 | 74 | 12.2%9 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…3ec8backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.67 | 255 | 32.9%84 W · 171 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…afddbacked Yes | 12c | 395.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.8 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…897dbacked Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +91%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…4c92backed Yes | 8c | 331.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.94 | 206 | 30.6%63 W · 143 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd1…ec0ebacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…dc83backed Yes | 19c | 266.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.38 | 160 | 16.3%26 W · 134 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ee…0d0ebacked Yes | 17c | 216.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.48 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc67…2859backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 432 | 46.8%202 W · 230 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d89…dc09backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 153 | 44.4%68 W · 85 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e5…dd13backed Yes | 9c | 125$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.75 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Yes | 9c | 116$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.56 | 1,111 | 24.3%270 W · 841 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…be19backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 323 | 12.1%39 W · 284 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…bd60backed Yes | 74c | 115$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 90 | 78.9%71 W · 19 L | +18.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 45c | 102.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 10c | 100.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 1,388 | 15.1%210 W · 1,178 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4665…23a8backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…4c80backed Yes | 42c | 94.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 148 | 56.8%84 W · 64 L | +20.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 90.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…2febbacked Yes | 21c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…4367backed Yes | 70c | 60.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1501…783fbacked Yes | 78c | 31.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 53c | 20.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 49 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Michael Olise: 2+ assiststhis page
- Alexander Isak: 1+ assistsNo won
- Alexander Isak: 1+ goalsNo won
- Alexander Isak: 1+ shotsYes won
- Alexander Isak: 2+ assistsNo won
- Alexander Isak: 2+ goalsNo won
- Alexander Isak: 2+ shotsYes won
- Alexander Isak: 2+ shots on targetNo won
- Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assistsNo won
- Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goalsNo won
- Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shotsYes won
- Bradley Barcola: 1+ assistsNo won
- Bradley Barcola: 1+ goalsYes won
- Bradley Barcola: 1+ shotsYes won
- Bradley Barcola: 2+ goalsNo won
- Bradley Barcola: 3+ goalsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 1+ assistsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 1+ goalsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 2+ goalsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 2+ shotsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assistsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsYes won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assistsYes won
- Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assistsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goalsYes won
- Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goalsNo won
- Manu Koné: 2+ goalsNo won
- Marcus Thuram: 1+ goalsNo won
- Michael Olise: 1+ assistsYes won
- Michael Olise: 1+ goalsNo won
- Michael Olise: 2+ goalsNo won
- Michael Olise: 3+ goalsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assistsYes won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assistsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goalsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goalsNo won
- Rayan Cherki: 1+ shotsNo won
- Théo Hernández: 1+ assistsNo won
- Théo Hernández: 1+ goalsNo won
- Théo Hernández: 1+ shotsNo won
- Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assistsNo won
- Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goalsNo won
- Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shotsYes won
- Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ assistsNo won
- Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goalsNo won
- Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shotsNo won
- Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shotsNo won
- Viktor Gyökeres: 5+ shotsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.