Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6bcb14ce7a86b444a3e4c5f859d0087f5ef54f73e41cc85dc242ef8bdba3192

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $71,483
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $71,170

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,483 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x85bb…9adabacked Yes	9c	22,010$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	324	29.9%97 W · 227 L	+10.4wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Yes	5c	11,110$589 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$588.83	361	23.5%85 W · 276 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2572…4514backed Yes	2c	6,950$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.5	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20e8…7ba4backed Yes	8c	2,967$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.38	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf695…409fbacked Yes	10c	2,124$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.39	62	21%13 W · 49 L	-7.9wins	-0.13per pick	34cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3a78…acfcbacked Yes	9c	1,405$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.21	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e26…8991backed Yes	9c	1,167$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	161	36%58 W · 103 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88ff…5102backed Yes	6c	816.67$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	143	17.5%25 W · 118 L	-7.5wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86c8…1fc7backed Yes	8c	712.5$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	105	36.2%38 W · 67 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes	9c	666.67$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	318	9.4%30 W · 288 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60dd…94b0backed Yes	26c	569.63$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11d1…0b41backed Yes	18c	549.99$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	463	19.9%92 W · 371 L	-8.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	15c	528.34$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.53	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b1f…3fd0backed Yes	11c	527.78$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	158	37.3%59 W · 99 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb8…3e04backed Yes	9c	517.78$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.6	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8c…8811backed Yes	9c	512.03$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+2.2wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a9d…de77backed Yes	23c	509.73$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119	81	49.4%40 W · 41 L	+6.0wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…9a01backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43dd…5bc1backed Yes	8c	431.75$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.54	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+2.2wins	+0.25per pick	31cpaid	+78.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb5d…0c35backed Yes	7c	418.75$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	64	35.9%23 W · 41 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4740…fa66backed Yes	7c	400$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	203	25.6%52 W · 151 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…04f7backed Yes	13c	284.8$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	156	21.8%34 W · 122 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d36…8f64backed Yes	20c	253.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	92	37%34 W · 58 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e5e…2c32backed Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	89	42.7%38 W · 51 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ab…178dbacked Yes	15c	249.99$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	198	23.7%47 W · 151 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d04…7c28backed Yes	8c	236.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+32%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6606…09fabacked Yes	17c	228.76$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.32	52	25%13 W · 39 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33f4…0464backed Yes	8c	225$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd26b…b09fbacked Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	357	14%50 W · 307 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4264…4811backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8970…f311backed Yes	23c	218.22$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	-3.3wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4455…6b2abacked Yes	12c	208.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	76	47.4%36 W · 40 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Yes	10c	203.84$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.21	1,111	24.3%270 W · 841 L	-32.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c35…fb29backed Yes	8c	203$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.24	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	212	40.6%86 W · 126 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0056…d0ecbacked Yes	5c	196.8$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.81	169	27.8%47 W · 122 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4665…23a8backed Yes	13c	192.78$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	62	19.4%12 W · 50 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaaa…8b07backed Yes	26c	192.31$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+2.8wins	+0.10per pick	38cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes	8c	187.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f4…7763backed Yes	23c	181.21$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.68	107	49.5%53 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd79c…9f33backed Yes	8c	175.88$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.07	53	20.8%11 W · 42 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa1c…e369backed Yes	8c	169$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	100	51%51 W · 49 L	+8.4wins	+0.08per pick	43cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3fca…c922backed Yes	9c	166.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	125	17.6%22 W · 103 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b59…be19backed Yes	9c	166.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	323	12.1%39 W · 284 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bf…0be9backed Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-2.4wins	-0.11per pick	34cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35ae…b929backed Yes	11c	155.1$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.83	80	32.5%26 W · 54 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x61e7…afddbacked Yes	10c	141.8$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.18	40	20%8 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbdd…c26abacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	131	48.1%63 W · 68 L	+10.6wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	215	25.1%54 W · 161 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a96…abb4backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+41.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb282…cde9backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	52	32.7%17 W · 35 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb178…3f7ebacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa82e…67d2backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	57	36.8%21 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3e5…dd13backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	31	6.5%2 W · 29 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8fb…7ecebacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	91	44%40 W · 51 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa95…b544backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xda22…c6e1backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	83	39.8%33 W · 50 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40a1…e17dbacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33df…24bebacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+2.5wins	+0.36per pick	21cpaid	+109.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf87a…36eabacked Yes	13c	121.43$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.79	70	58.6%41 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0392…ab02backed Yes	25c	108$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	203	54.7%111 W · 92 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3f…d4bfbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	158	37.3%59 W · 99 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0459…0fcbbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	267	20.6%55 W · 212 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x801b…bd43backed Yes	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+4.2wins	+0.20per pick	52cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x824f…e635backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	142	34.5%49 W · 93 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x736e…a144backed Yes	20c	90.4$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff38…738dbacked Yes	12c	89.23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	114	41.2%47 W · 67 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9382…a673backed Yes	24c	86.41$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	59	33.9%20 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb0b…4817backed Yes	18c	83.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	258	41.1%106 W · 152 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48f8…36dbbacked Yes	12c	82.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	120	36.7%44 W · 76 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x886f…c994backed Yes	16c	78.79$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e0e…9eb8backed Yes	22c	68.18$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16c8…1badbacked Yes	25c	60$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	197	42.1%83 W · 114 L	-11.1wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No	68c	58.55$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.79	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fed…eddebacked Yes	27c	58$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.52	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcce5…c8f4backed Yes	23c	52.17$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	90	57.8%52 W · 38 L	+11.5wins	+0.13per pick	45cpaid	+42.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x144e…c7d2backed Yes	23c	52.17$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+2.6wins	+0.13per pick	42cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad1b…1d65backed Yes	32c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	92	59.8%55 W · 37 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e3…b17fbacked Yes	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-2.4wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 49 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goalsthis page
Alexander Isak: 1+ assistsNo won
Alexander Isak: 1+ goalsNo won
Alexander Isak: 1+ shotsYes won
Alexander Isak: 2+ assistsNo won
Alexander Isak: 2+ goalsNo won
Alexander Isak: 2+ shotsYes won
Alexander Isak: 2+ shots on targetNo won
Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assistsNo won
Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goalsNo won
Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shotsYes won
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assistsNo won
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goalsYes won
Bradley Barcola: 1+ shotsYes won
Bradley Barcola: 2+ goalsNo won
Bradley Barcola: 3+ goalsNo won
Désiré Doué: 1+ assistsNo won
Désiré Doué: 1+ goalsNo won
Désiré Doué: 2+ goalsNo won
Désiré Doué: 2+ shotsNo won
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assistsNo won
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsYes won
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assistsYes won
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assistsNo won
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goalsYes won
Manu Koné: 2+ goalsNo won
Marcus Thuram: 1+ goalsNo won
Michael Olise: 1+ assistsYes won
Michael Olise: 1+ goalsNo won
Michael Olise: 2+ assistsYes won
Michael Olise: 2+ goalsNo won
Michael Olise: 3+ goalsNo won
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assistsYes won
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goalsNo won
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assistsNo won
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goalsNo won
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goalsNo won
Rayan Cherki: 1+ shotsNo won
Théo Hernández: 1+ assistsNo won
Théo Hernández: 1+ goalsNo won
Théo Hernández: 1+ shotsNo won
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assistsNo won
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goalsNo won
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shotsYes won
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ assistsNo won
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goalsNo won
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shotsNo won
Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shotsNo won
Viktor Gyökeres: 5+ shotsNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event