TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3a96…abb4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
57
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NBA, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 52 out of 100; worst MLB at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT3537.1%13 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.81
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twinsbacked Kansas City Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$18.46
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigersbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankeesbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Miami Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$17.04
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padresbacked San Diego Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$22.55
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Colorado Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Athletics vs. Houston Astrosbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Miami Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$23.48
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.75
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+134.9%+$26.98
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangersbacked Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$22.55
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$24.44
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twinsbacked Kansas City Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$18.46
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astrosbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+41.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Belgium?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$110
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Ecuador?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+300%+$30
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$16.19
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+59.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$97.06
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$43.29
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$31.71
All 5 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparksbacked PortlandFire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Acesbacked Golden State Valkyries · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$20.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1backed Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will GPT-5.6 be released between May 25 and May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.