South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb887d561084050c9a91de0b187a5272ba9a32aec715ddfab16a6ae1c34f1df06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 15c | 1,894$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.16 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 12c | 1,679$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.6 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,247$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.84 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 31c | 957.99$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.08 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed No | 69c | 920$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.2 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 4c | 370$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf6…0e3bbacked No | 78c | 350$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 77c | 332$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.17 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 8c | 227.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd94f…ee62backed Yes | 19c | 194.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +452.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 72c | 188$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 77c | 162.4$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 70c | 149.37$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 79c | 145.91$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 129 | 58.1%75 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 77c | 116$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Yes | 17c | 114.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 75c | 114$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…0efebacked Yes | 30c | 113.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 31c | 67.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 1,670 | 51.8%865 W · 805 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 31c | 61.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 60.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…535ebacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 57.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 70c | 57.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 70c | 54.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 74c | 53.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 31c | 33.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1,303 | 50.1%653 W · 650 L | -14.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 31c | 33.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…7af9backed No | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37b…63a1backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34c…ca55backed No | 72c | 20.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a draw?this page
- Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-21?Yes won
- Will Deportivo La Guaira FC win on 2026-05-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.