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South American Leagues · resolved market

Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-08-18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$146,674
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$148,022

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,674 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x04d5…66d8backed Yes64c33,917$21,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,246.245851.7%30 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No36c7,439$2,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,678.0452649.8%262 W · 264 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e78…067ebacked No24c7,019$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.463644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No21c7,000$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.495,83145.4%2,647 W · 3,184 L+99.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No33c6,476$2,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,115.178,17548.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L+27.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe301…8654backed Yes73c5,666$4,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,535.535839.7%23 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed No35c5,377$1,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,862.72,60839.3%1,024 W · 1,584 L-29.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc5b…3ddcbacked Yes66c4,874$3,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,637.378030%24 W · 56 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No36c3,406$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.81,30853.7%702 W · 606 L+5.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No36c3,120$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.961,26153.6%676 W · 585 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked No28c3,020$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.41,51146.1%697 W · 814 L-15.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8868…ec09backed No36c2,798$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.193372.7%24 W · 9 L+7.4wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+51%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked No36c2,578$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.6620549.3%101 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Yes65c2,308$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.6920837%77 W · 131 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4155…fa41backed Yes77c1,843$1,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.113773%100 W · 37 L+21.4wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+29.8%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x35c8…90cbbacked No36c1,620$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5903450%17 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Yes57c1,434$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.5541641.1%171 W · 245 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94d4…d869backed No24c1,395$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.731127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb89a…5f21backed No22c1,364$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+186.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb399…9435backed Yes72c1,338$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.0814548.3%70 W · 75 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2398…8894backed Yes60c1,167$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.67875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e97…8ffabacked Yes66c1,096$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.749133%30 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5690…7a58backed No5c1,096$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.45119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb3a…d1ccbacked No31c1,066$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.732548%12 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Yes64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3601338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No37c990.04$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.83,44951.4%1,773 W · 1,676 L+22.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf8b…cb2cbacked No22c971.64$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.653438.2%13 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked No16c921.06$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.9528634.6%99 W · 187 L-16.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No36c860.03$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.482,01551.4%1,036 W · 979 L+44.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe419…8aedbacked No34c817.52$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.671330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc38…d22bbacked Yes61c800$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No36c690.52$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.491,32550%663 W · 662 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b07…d2a0backed Yes62c648.38$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No36c600$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21621647.2%102 W · 114 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes61c587.43$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.2832335.9%116 W · 207 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd819…4c18backed No44c586.92$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed No37c552$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.312,65554.2%1,440 W · 1,215 L+27.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…97cfbacked No36c540.54$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.596613.6%9 W · 57 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes66c532.02$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.8827339.2%107 W · 166 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed No36c520$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.232640.2%131 W · 195 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4cc…09a3backed Yes75c487.44$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb964…033ebacked No10c474.81$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3412453.2%66 W · 58 L+10.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed No36c468.73$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.7581356.5%459 W · 354 L+25.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac5a…1ac8backed No6c463.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8650%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa71d…9854backed Yes65c452.23$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.284463.6%28 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes67c449.63$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.2851935.5%184 W · 335 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Yes57c449.63$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.34757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4a0…217abacked No24c424.58$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.951136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+178.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5519…f7e1backed Yes65c400$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1401546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…9507backed Yes57c399.99$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1725352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes64c379.83$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.8313137.4%49 W · 82 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No40c350.32$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.231,32342.8%566 W · 757 L-2.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a83…920dbacked Yes69c329.81$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.646651.5%34 W · 32 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No34c326.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.4811127%30 W · 81 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbe8…1141backed No55c320.11$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.51752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4cf…2224backed Yes64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.52171.4%15 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ae1…8c1bbacked No30c304.3$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.292638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47d9…54b7backed Yes68c298.27$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.66040%24 W · 36 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes71c293.84$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.61,39352.6%733 W · 660 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81a8…9c69backed No34c274.06$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.667861.5%48 W · 30 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0464…67dabacked No42c272.95$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1714355.2%79 W · 64 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes78c253.21$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.711,33956.9%762 W · 577 L+55.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Yes50c240$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12078351%399 W · 384 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed No38c226$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.882,34651.4%1,207 W · 1,139 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No36c225$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.531,44251.9%748 W · 694 L+23.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes66c222.75$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6872336.9%267 W · 456 L+2.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Yes70c217.72$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.142,37634.7%824 W · 1,552 L-27.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No36c209.22$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.181,68850.8%857 W · 831 L-4.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd74…bedabacked No7c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1313934.5%48 W · 91 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+27.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed No35c198.13$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3422349.3%110 W · 113 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7245…4b00backed No36c190.88$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.145038%19 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d1c…3347backed No11c181.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2022337.7%84 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc28c…6fb2backed Yes64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.251758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61d4…3593backed Yes64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2529638.2%113 W · 183 L+1.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f39…e279backed No36c156.25$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2517750.3%89 W · 88 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa35…bda4backed Yes65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f50…63a7backed Yes65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.85875%6 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5993…470dbacked Yes60c150$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31ac…8b4cbacked Yes68c147.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.067848.7%38 W · 40 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3101…e57fbacked No55c138.85$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3714654.1%79 W · 67 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ee…affdbacked Yes64c138.1$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.11361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7523…68a0backed No36c136.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.741833.3%6 W · 12 L-4.4wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-42%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9503…1fd2backed Yes58c128.93$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.941942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick28cpaid+47.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked No48c123.72$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609536.8%35 W · 60 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf40a…ea0abacked Yes80c120.65$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.138368.7%57 W · 26 L+8.8wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+14.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3d29…65e7backed No36c119.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.22642.3%11 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+37.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x076b…57afbacked Yes64c119.99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed No37c119.38$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.572619.2%5 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-50.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Yes68c118.58$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5219840.9%81 W · 117 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x294f…eeabbacked Yes66c116.8$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.711553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x536e…4fd5backed Yes65c114.42$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.052259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x089c…4dc4backed Yes71c113.39$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2945046.2%208 W · 242 L-1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No54c112$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.842313%3 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-74%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed No35c110.56$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.219251%98 W · 94 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e90…4f65backed No37c108.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4519154.5%104 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb66…9085backed No36c107.06$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed No34c103$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2444561.6%274 W · 171 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed No36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365356.6%30 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked No35c99.96$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4912553.6%67 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39f9…fcc3backed Yes63c98.5$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.14934.7%17 W · 32 L-7.6wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-32.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.