Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-01-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8b0eb6c1fa58ac29a6a5810464b1d9055d35edc89809b0a6688bfa791cb602a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 70c | 20,000$13,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,100 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 67c | 19,923$13,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,563.74 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 30c | 15,068$4,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,520.47 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 51c | 3,123$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594.37 | 638 | 49.5%316 W · 322 L | +26.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 30c | 2,925$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.61 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 70c | 2,881$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.19 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 33c | 1,505$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.91 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 29c | 1,333$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.52 | 447 | 68%304 W · 143 L | +52.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked No | 35c | 1,240$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 33c | 1,235$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.68 | 473 | 25.4%120 W · 353 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Yes | 65c | 964.28$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 66c | 827.93$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.93 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed No | 35c | 816$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.6 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 34c | 764.43$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.87 | 109 | 20.2%22 W · 87 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes | 68c | 735.49$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.49 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed No | 41c | 673.98$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.88 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…a92dbacked Yes | 67c | 607.15$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.36 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 71c | 600$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.8 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 27c | 495.56$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.04 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 35c | 459.62$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.82 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 67c | 444.04$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.11 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f9…0aebbacked No | 33c | 406.96$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 67c | 386$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.38 | 396 | 37.1%147 W · 249 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…592fbacked Yes | 67c | 313.64$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 38c | 298.2$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.25 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 34c | 210$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 216 | 44.4%96 W · 120 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 212 | 56.6%120 W · 92 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…a5cebacked Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e5…e5cebacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 34c | 134.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 242 | 42.1%102 W · 140 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223e…fc48backed Yes | 32c | 126.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +215.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Yes | 67c | 124$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…5cd7backed Yes | 42c | 119.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Yes | 65c | 116$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 48c | 112.07$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x503d…cd16backed Yes | 66c | 110$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 29c | 109.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 328 | 35.4%116 W · 212 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…8c81backed Yes | 68c | 107.35$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Yes | 28c | 97.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +151%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Yes | 67c | 91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bab…6832backed Yes | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Yes | 30c | 85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed No | 66c | 76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Yes | 40c | 72.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cd…9740backed Yes | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…5cf7backed No | 35c | 69.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a6…3e59backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 31c | 63.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 67c | 51.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked No | 33c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 58c | 46.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 31c | 43.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 32c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…3023backed Yes | 67c | 41.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 45c | 39.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 93 | 25.8%24 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed No | 70c | 36.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 87 | 82.8%72 W · 15 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…1a05backed Yes | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8999…21fbbacked Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 33c | 31.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked No | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 252 | 63.5%160 W · 92 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +50%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…7782backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…1a87backed Yes | 44c | 24.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98c5…dd3bbacked Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…5da0backed Yes | 68c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd861…931abacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa775…20d7backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Yes | 68c | 19.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf18…7a1abacked Yes | 70c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-01-14?this page
- Will Heart of Midlothian FC vs. St Mirren FC end in a draw?No won
- Will St Mirren FC win on 2026-01-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.