MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8dff49ac98b2b9ae93a32c65719c192e2b5ec5967f72f884e54b64d38dec4da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 12,311$7,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,125.52 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 11,236$4,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,719.06 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 9,322$3,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,821.68 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 9,044$4,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,469.49 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 4,133$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,003.88 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…6591backed San Diego Padres | 51c | 4,004$2,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,048.24 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 3,894$1,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,918.15 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 3,867$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,088.95 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked San Diego Padres | 0c | 3,075$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 2,230$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.5 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 2,074$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.55 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 999.98$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.99 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 825.87$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.23 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 500$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Chicago Cubs | 56c | 475$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.5 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…0ed4backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 431.49$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 402.71$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.98 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 401.16$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.57 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 343.71$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.59 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked San Diego Padres | 41c | 321$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.92 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 207.55$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.55 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…32eebacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Chicago Cubs | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe2…72a3backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 146.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 130.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 101.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 65.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 58.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…e2cdbacked Chicago Cubs | 55c | 50.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…b560backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…8444backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 38.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 34.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 22.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.