TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
EDward Gamingof XLG Gaming, EDward Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$268,738
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$310,736

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $268,738 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 241 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf60…a6f5backed XLG Gaming42c48,000$20,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,174.4652155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d6e…5cfdbacked XLG Gaming48c33,325$15,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,862.661540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed EDward Gaming52c16,862$8,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,093.5724145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed EDward Gaming50c13,764$6,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,908.5712951.2%66 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked EDward Gaming53c9,443$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,443.484353.5%23 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed EDward Gaming64c8,691$5,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,144.4553159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked EDward Gaming65c8,675$5,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,997.1468458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked EDward Gaming66c5,752$3,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,933.2265559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd92c…dd9abacked EDward Gaming50c5,600$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8004146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked EDward Gaming69c5,527$3,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,701.7378562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed XLG Gaming27c5,000$1,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,344.182924.1%7 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed EDward Gaming50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0005655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked EDward Gaming50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00026738.2%102 W · 165 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed EDward Gaming65c3,239$2,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.646643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked EDward Gaming70c3,186$2,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.6494361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed XLG Gaming38c3,085$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.791,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked XLG Gaming37c2,612$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.2368949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked EDward Gaming53c2,522$1,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,197.669340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked EDward Gaming60c2,445$1,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.853355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked EDward Gaming71c2,323$1,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.126650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked XLG Gaming31c2,178$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.0888844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7d…236dbacked XLG Gaming1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed EDward Gaming69c1,912$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.4130147.2%142 W · 159 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa83f…b857backed EDward Gaming52c1,717$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.162347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed EDward Gaming52c1,588$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.6214938.3%57 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed XLG Gaming51c1,541$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.1714750.3%74 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked XLG Gaming41c1,496$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.6577744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed EDward Gaming62c1,453$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.6156357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e42…a2bcbacked EDward Gaming57c1,221$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed EDward Gaming52c1,200$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.9917640.3%71 W · 105 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f5…c45dbacked EDward Gaming54c1,195$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.064544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed XLG Gaming43c1,072$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.3919240.1%77 W · 115 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked XLG Gaming50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50086747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked XLG Gaming43c999.99$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.8226450%132 W · 132 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked EDward Gaming53c956.98$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.78850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a5a…6002backed XLG Gaming20c936.47$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.31757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick30cpaid+69%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed EDward Gaming60c917.52$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.566259.7%37 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed XLG Gaming17c909.28$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.9160022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd4c…b237backed XLG Gaming23c864.67$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe32a…1f66backed EDward Gaming57c780.32$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.541963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9394…b7b7backed EDward Gaming54c760$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.6850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed EDward Gaming66c758.37$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.746373%46 W · 17 L+10.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed EDward Gaming78c757$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.5866438.1%253 W · 411 L-31.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ea1…94dcbacked XLG Gaming30c750$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+87%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked EDward Gaming60c723.88$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.021,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xabcc…10b4backed EDward Gaming57c720.8$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.061353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+28.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6aa4…236cbacked XLG Gaming49c705$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.110951.4%56 W · 53 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6683…de6bbacked EDward Gaming65c700$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245850%4 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked EDward Gaming72c692.28$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.6328541.1%117 W · 168 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked XLG Gaming38c659.83$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.115342.5%65 W · 88 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed EDward Gaming59c642.31$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.4222455.4%124 W · 100 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked XLG Gaming27c632.12$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.067737.7%29 W · 48 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed XLG Gaming48c600$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28522047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8f…3ce9backed XLG Gaming15c599.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b55…076fbacked EDward Gaming52c599.99$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2886137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdcb…36c9backed XLG Gaming35c591.35$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.962055%11 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+42.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae94…6b17backed EDward Gaming43c587.18$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.79771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+25.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed XLG Gaming40c585.99$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.42744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd3…74d4backed XLG Gaming35c571.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a9e…a24bbacked EDward Gaming71c551.73$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.11580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked XLG Gaming31c539.4$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.571,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fa…e287backed EDward Gaming60c530$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2122100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+71.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked XLG Gaming38c514.91$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.481,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked EDward Gaming79c500$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.466048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked XLG Gaming48c499.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24016639.2%65 W · 101 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked EDward Gaming70c499.98$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.9924457.8%141 W · 103 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8cc…661ebacked XLG Gaming48c479.52$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.175660.7%34 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed EDward Gaming50c453.42$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.241546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked EDward Gaming53c437.74$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.7414534.5%50 W · 95 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e51…2412backed XLG Gaming50c433.22$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2187745.5%35 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed XLG Gaming23c429.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6923836.1%86 W · 152 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed EDward Gaming50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20019847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf91c…baa7backed XLG Gaming17c399.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.84037.5%15 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd73d…c2e1backed XLG Gaming48c397.02$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.5720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed EDward Gaming51c389.99$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.096553.8%35 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69b9…a5d5backed EDward Gaming77c389.61$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.611353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9364…a9e1backed EDward Gaming77c351.9$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.39666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad09…758ebacked EDward Gaming57c342.74$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed XLG Gaming32c333.28$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.4593049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed XLG Gaming49c332.98$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.163151.6%16 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bbb…48f2backed XLG Gaming21c320.43$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed XLG Gaming52c311.82$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.781,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd2…5dedbacked EDward Gaming57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129850%4 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+46.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0095…76e2backed XLG Gaming47c296.52$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.092152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc48…24c3backed XLG Gaming42c285$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.71127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-51.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed XLG Gaming33c283.26$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7534253.2%182 W · 160 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed EDward Gaming57c270$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1172425%6 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd6a…fdbbbacked XLG Gaming46c259.88$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.747356.2%41 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e82…4cfbbacked EDward Gaming53c246.02$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.631668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa442…dca3backed EDward Gaming60c245.12$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.158062.5%50 W · 30 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed XLG Gaming40c240.8$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.328158%47 W · 34 L+8.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed EDward Gaming74c240.59$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5529151.5%150 W · 141 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a68…2c01backed EDward Gaming62c240.57$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.57540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7547…1a38backed EDward Gaming51c240$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.63053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked EDward Gaming52c235.05$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.8384838.2%324 W · 524 L-50.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3323…213abacked XLG Gaming43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002450%12 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafc5…2b1dbacked EDward Gaming52c229.99$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.391435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bcc…0d8abacked XLG Gaming27c223.57$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7915217.8%27 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcda…5e95backed EDward Gaming68c223.45$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5511457%65 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d5…54d5backed XLG Gaming22c210$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.73545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.