TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
XLG Gamingof XLG Gaming, EDward Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$301,791
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$379,602

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $301,791 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf070…ac55backed XLG Gaming38c43,223$16,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,699.9424145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed EDward Gaming63c35,000$22,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,041.9952155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked XLG Gaming43c28,026$12,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,934.1826650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked EDward Gaming61c13,299$8,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,152.171942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c8d…65e7backed XLG Gaming37c12,500$4,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,874.93757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd92c…dd9abacked EDward Gaming56c9,850$5,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,515.914146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed XLG Gaming58c6,631$3,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,815.232360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9257…7270backed EDward Gaming62c5,572$3,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,454.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed XLG Gaming38c5,000$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,099.972924.1%7 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked EDward Gaming66c3,912$2,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,575.6578562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed EDward Gaming61c2,862$1,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,745.696643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked EDward Gaming58c2,346$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,363.6794361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed EDward Gaming54c2,179$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.521,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed EDward Gaming55c2,045$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.372744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked EDward Gaming53c2,034$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.9714534.5%50 W · 95 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed EDward Gaming38c1,992$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.296373%46 W · 17 L+10.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked EDward Gaming41c1,971$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.4853355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed EDward Gaming38c1,969$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.956259.7%37 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked XLG Gaming39c1,950$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.1926738.2%102 W · 165 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed EDward Gaming51c1,873$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.4153159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked EDward Gaming38c1,788$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.3828541.1%117 W · 168 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked EDward Gaming57c1,714$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.892369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed EDward Gaming58c1,602$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.3174642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed XLG Gaming23c1,396$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.2693049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked EDward Gaming43c1,302$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.9368458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed XLG Gaming38c1,250$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77522449.1%110 W · 114 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39bc…2739backed XLG Gaming40c1,250$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7501637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bd9…1e6fbacked XLG Gaming51c1,246$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked EDward Gaming60c1,213$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.191,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed EDward Gaming41c1,140$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.7456357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked EDward Gaming35c1,140$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.7788844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked EDward Gaming52c1,100$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.9986747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed XLG Gaming38c1,032$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64018457.1%105 W · 79 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed EDward Gaming61c1,000$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60522047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed XLG Gaming37c914.28$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.9517349.7%86 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17d3…586bbacked XLG Gaming38c896.42$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.246250%31 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd06…f0c1backed EDward Gaming63c789.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f70…123dbacked XLG Gaming41c738.33$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.351442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked EDward Gaming57c736.84$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabcc…10b4backed EDward Gaming55c727.27$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+28.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked EDward Gaming60c720.57$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.4142140.4%170 W · 251 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe32a…1f66backed EDward Gaming63c712.59$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7bb6…4171backed EDward Gaming62c693.23$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed EDward Gaming7c678.7$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3860022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked EDward Gaming48c659.29$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.21,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed EDward Gaming52c641$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.5923836.1%86 W · 152 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e51…2412backed EDward Gaming62c636.05$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.357745.5%35 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3323…213abacked EDward Gaming58c600.76$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3502450%12 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2363…a20dbacked EDward Gaming61c598.36$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3652755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked EDward Gaming54c581.53$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.747737.7%29 W · 48 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed EDward Gaming58c575.32$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.1939166%258 W · 133 L+24.0wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed EDward Gaming59c557.23$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.372450%12 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed XLG Gaming39c549.54$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.225250%26 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+32%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed EDward Gaming63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31522455.4%124 W · 100 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked EDward Gaming61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30524457.8%141 W · 103 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b55…076fbacked XLG Gaming37c497.29$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.296137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked EDward Gaming63c478$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.1433153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed XLG Gaming37c461.98$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+51.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e99…ce35backed EDward Gaming56c449.99$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-59.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked EDward Gaming63c444$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.7221055.2%116 W · 94 L+10.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed XLG Gaming37c440$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.232047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed EDward Gaming63c435.9$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.6224946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed EDward Gaming35c430.23$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0227947.7%133 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked EDward Gaming43c421.23$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.561,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a9e…a24bbacked XLG Gaming56c412.07$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.08580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f5…c45dbacked EDward Gaming53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2124544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked EDward Gaming28c387.83$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1368949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed XLG Gaming40c382.88$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.054346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a31…b2e0backed EDward Gaming56c355.59$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed XLG Gaming37c342.89$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.0218647.8%89 W · 97 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x987e…8d7abacked EDward Gaming59c338.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002450%12 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee96…0ae7backed EDward Gaming57c328.25$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.1450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed XLG Gaming43c328.25$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.125453.5%136 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b1c…8273backed EDward Gaming61c327.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked XLG Gaming47c325.89$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.665559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed XLG Gaming38c323.1$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.6653442.1%225 W · 309 L-15.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed7a…a656backed EDward Gaming55c320$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.24040%16 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked XLG Gaming50c311.21$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.8316639.2%65 W · 101 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad09…758ebacked EDward Gaming50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed EDward Gaming67c296.84$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007050%35 W · 35 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bcc…0d8abacked XLG Gaming57c295.9$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.0115217.8%27 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed EDward Gaming33c292$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3626634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb7b…bfeebacked XLG Gaming36c275.35$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.242231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4711…ce32backed EDward Gaming61c269.96$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.681741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb777…3ff9backed EDward Gaming80c256.66$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.965349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf1…ffbdbacked EDward Gaming62c252.88$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.791952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed EDward Gaming56c249.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.992425%6 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39c9…7debbacked EDward Gaming61c245.9$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506050%30 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked EDward Gaming38c244.92$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.790733.1%300 W · 607 L-89.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed EDward Gaming34c232$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9429151.5%150 W · 141 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked EDward Gaming28c225$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x119d…bec3backed EDward Gaming49c206.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005536.4%20 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed EDward Gaming59c202$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1893148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed EDward Gaming55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11018948.7%92 W · 97 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked EDward Gaming58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1166636.4%24 W · 42 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf91c…baa7backed EDward Gaming47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944037.5%15 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae94…6b17backed EDward Gaming61c199.99$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.89771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+25.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed EDward Gaming71c199.36$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.61837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick72cpaid-51.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked EDward Gaming55c194.96$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9584838.2%324 W · 524 L-50.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a80…c3e6backed EDward Gaming52c193.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.