NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb942d6041e2d05982af400e73989d13e7fa2af6884a3449ef1687919614a2fc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $384,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $384,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $384,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5afb…4511backed Under | 46c | 361,881$167,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194,452.32 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Over | 54c | 70,017$37,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,761.02 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 52c | 50,290$26,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,144.8 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…e617backed Over | 54c | 47,943$25,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,873.06 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 54c | 37,198$20,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,087.18 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 53c | 28,386$15,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,175.17 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Over | 54c | 25,000$13,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,500 | 375 | 57.6%216 W · 159 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Over | 55c | 23,000$12,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,700 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 18,786$10,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,194.92 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Over | 56c | 17,500$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,800 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 52c | 14,950$7,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,724.1 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 54c | 11,146$6,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,027.55 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 52c | 7,600$3,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,952 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Over | 53c | 4,654$2,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,466.76 | 148 | 56.1%83 W · 65 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…5070backed Under | 50c | 4,180$2,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…6a9fbacked Under | 50c | 2,300$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd59e…2cadbacked Under | 50c | 2,300$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…5fdcbacked Over | 50c | 1,540$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed Over | 55c | 1,448$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.51 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc0…0606backed Over | 50c | 1,300$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 52c | 1,018$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.76 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219f…b6c4backed Over | 50c | 856$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacb3…a6d1backed Over | 50c | 810$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 54c | 777$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.58 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd57…2d2ebacked Over | 50c | 684$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca5…6d0cbacked Over | 54c | 672$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.88 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa32c…8265backed Over | 50c | 650$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0077…559cbacked Over | 50c | 602$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e7…5e5abacked Over | 50c | 560$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7da…981fbacked Over | 50c | 560$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b08…0327backed Over | 50c | 551.21$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 53c | 530.18$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.88 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Over | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 241 | 47.3%114 W · 127 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb08c…9b35backed Over | 50c | 450$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8187…c59ebacked Over | 50c | 379$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5a…ec0ebacked Under | 50c | 378$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…f1cebacked Under | 50c | 377$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6d…69ffbacked Over | 50c | 376$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d2…e13dbacked Under | 50c | 370$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…e420backed Over | 50c | 369$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…31c0backed Over | 50c | 365$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…195abacked Under | 50c | 364$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4e…437cbacked Over | 56c | 357.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec97…4e79backed Over | 50c | 254$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…a062backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf21…e23ebacked Over | 50c | 108$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Over | 52c | 97.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Under | 54c | 92.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 54c | 57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 46c | 31.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5this page
- Pelicans vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Pelicans vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.