NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Warriors
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb96c32c16f68e38a26654b243d0fb1773dcfc6181845718e2a5aff5771796009
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Warriors | 44c | 4,334$1,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,916.58 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Heat | 56c | 3,800$2,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,672 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Heat | 57c | 3,333$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.16 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7435…a620backed Warriors | 45c | 2,228$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…bb3fbacked Warriors | 49c | 1,310$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1716…c8babacked Heat | 51c | 1,310$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Warriors | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.8 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Heat | 55c | 999.97$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.98 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ce…7d8bbacked Warriors | 45c | 960$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6efd…aa49backed Heat | 55c | 955$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3d…41f3backed Heat | 55c | 945$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b5…7718backed Warriors | 45c | 940$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee6…9d71backed Heat | 57c | 772.6$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…33d6backed Warriors | 54c | 696.52$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.13 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.2wins | +0.40per pick | 52cpaid | +82%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Heat | 55c | 645.36$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.32 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Heat | 48c | 539.32$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.08 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Heat | 54c | 439.29$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.24 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Warriors | 53c | 378.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 160 | 42.5%68 W · 92 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d50…3b2fbacked Heat | 60c | 336.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.03 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Warriors | 50c | 299$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Warriors | 41c | 245.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 463 | 42.5%197 W · 266 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Warriors | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked Warriors | 43c | 226.54$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684a…1b69backed Warriors | 44c | 225.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Heat | 55c | 222.98$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Warriors | 46c | 219.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 893 | 53%473 W · 420 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…9a29backed Warriors | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5132…0a83backed Heat | 58c | 199.95$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…9eacbacked Heat | 59c | 192.91$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x484f…0075backed Warriors | 45c | 187.14$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…ad6abacked Heat | 57c | 175.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Warriors | 41c | 162$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 686 | 42.1%289 W · 397 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…48f2backed Warriors | 43c | 147.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…de55backed Heat | 55c | 135$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…9c85backed Warriors | 45c | 135$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…53e9backed Warriors | 57c | 123.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b6…e624backed Warriors | 47c | 122$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Warriors | 44c | 118.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed56…f524backed Warriors | 31c | 113.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Heat | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Heat | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Warriors | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 427 | 40.3%172 W · 255 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Heat | 49c | 95.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Warriors | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Heat | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 258 | 36.8%95 W · 163 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Heat | 59c | 85.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Warriors | 45c | 84.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Warriors | 43c | 81.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Heat | 57c | 81.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Warriors | 43c | 76.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Heat | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 667 | 32.4%216 W · 451 L | +41.8wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Heat | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…93a7backed Warriors | 43c | 65.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Heat | 57c | 64.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Warriors | 44c | 60.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…2f84backed Warriors | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…2194backed Warriors | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Warriors | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c4…83e3backed Warriors | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…a92dbacked Warriors | 43c | 50.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Warriors | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…4f6cbacked Warriors | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…415ebacked Warriors | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 316 | 31.6%100 W · 216 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4967…11c9backed Heat | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…1b48backed Warriors | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked Heat | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Heat | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2610…5374backed Warriors | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ea…22ecbacked Warriors | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf754…b2c4backed Heat | 54c | 28.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Heat | 56c | 26.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…4461backed Heat | 56c | 26.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b1…7bb4backed Warriors | 46c | 26.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c25…d27abacked Warriors | 48c | 26.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…f48fbacked Warriors | 50c | 26.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Heat | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Heat | 42c | 24.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…df43backed Heat | 51c | 20.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.