Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9743d52d3d5999cbf16d42c0fcc27b09b098947d641f81880f009da4cc4f2f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23fc…89f2backed Yes | 0c | 10,150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 1,885$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 44c | 839.1$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.39 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 716.08$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.18 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 440.69$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 413.04$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 22c | 391.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82c2…5905backed Yes | 45c | 390$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.96 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 34c | 383.07$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.65 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 378.65$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 30c | 375.29$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.69 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed No | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 363.85$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 13c | 322.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 318.53$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 80c | 310.05$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 52c | 306.71$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.82 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 59c | 288.34$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.32 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 247.95$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.73 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 69c | 239.14$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 237.5$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.12 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 67c | 224.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 68c | 221.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.57 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 212.22$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 66c | 211.88$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.09 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 204.52$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 190.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 37c | 188.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 175.36$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 174.92$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 29c | 170.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 35c | 168$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 72c | 161.54$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 35c | 157.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 71c | 157.29$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 156.02$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 29c | 143.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 143$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 26c | 128.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 108$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 104.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 56c | 100.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 99.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 62c | 97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 95.31$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 85.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 42c | 80.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 34c | 80.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 46c | 75.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 71.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 20c | 70.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 35c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 67c | 67.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 64c | 65.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 38c | 62.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…c740backed Yes | 36c | 56.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 27c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 55.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 80c | 55.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…e052backed No | 64c | 54.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed Yes | 34c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 50.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae09…60fbbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 48.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 47.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f7…0cd6backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 42c | 43.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 49c | 43.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 38.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eba…7ff0backed No | 65c | 38.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 42c | 38.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 71c | 36.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 44c | 33.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 64c | 32.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 38c | 31.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 68c | 30.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 58c | 30.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 42c | 30.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 54c | 30.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 62c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 27.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 60c | 27.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 53c | 25.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 67c | 24.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.