Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bc2fd079dfc1ac868bdd335130dbf18936b846726c2450f3dfd6a63a71257a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 48c | 2,226$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.03 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 11c | 1,123$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 43c | 755.49$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.58 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 749.77$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.47 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 638$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 55c | 535$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.51 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 511.78$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 74c | 496.48$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.37 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 450.25$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.91 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 449.33$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.51 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 307.58$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 76c | 264.8$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 54c | 252.61$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.67 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 232.33$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 214$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.98 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 77c | 196.28$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 178.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 57c | 176.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 170.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 168.12$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 143$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 45c | 133.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 17c | 119.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 70c | 119.44$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 118.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 117$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 116.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 111.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 111.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 37c | 108.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 14c | 107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 53c | 105.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 10c | 104.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 52c | 95.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 43c | 94.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 48c | 94.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 58c | 94.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 52c | 94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a39…44b7backed No | 53c | 91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 17c | 87.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 86.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 52c | 83.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 40c | 79.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 29c | 73.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 70c | 71.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 54c | 70.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 46c | 69.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 20c | 62.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 59.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 37c | 57.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 55.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x917e…516cbacked Yes | 59c | 55.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 63cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 55c | 54.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000b…cf3cbacked Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23fc…89f2backed Yes | 51c | 49.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 21c | 49.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 43c | 49.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…be1ebacked Yes | 51c | 48.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…4907backed No | 29c | 44.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0405backed Yes | 52c | 42.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 55c | 42.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd4…b2f2backed No | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked No | 57c | 39.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 35c | 38.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 50c | 37.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 48c | 37.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 48c | 37.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73cc…aecabacked No | 66c | 36.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 50c | 35.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 30c | 35.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 58c | 34.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c34…02cdbacked No | 55c | 34.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 49c | 34.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 35c | 33.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 46c | 33.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 40c | 31.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 51c | 29.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 76c | 29.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 27.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 52c | 27.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 27.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 45c | 26.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.