Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9d191dbf4bc06d3a44c3349cebb83f411936ff0b8614677b706da377228f077
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 772.64$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.24 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 61c | 140$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 104.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 103.83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 103.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 41c | 97.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 89.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 54c | 69.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 43c | 59.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 53.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 58c | 51.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 46.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 49c | 45.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 61c | 43.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 45c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 44c | 41.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 36.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 43c | 35.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…f52abacked Yes | 40c | 34.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 33.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 56c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 41c | 26.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 65c | 25.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 24.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 42c | 23.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 22.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x404d…84cdbacked No | 59c | 20.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…1316backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…28f8backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.