Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7e835fbfc919841b1a549cc27621f897f19723e00452310a24a04555c94ed3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 24c | 716.28$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.17 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 645.15$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 35c | 576.71$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.69 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 60c | 392.18$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.56 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 230.49$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 213.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 205.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 189.75$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 22c | 180.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.23 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 177.28$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 177.03$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.46 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 71c | 158.25$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 142.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 121.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 33c | 119.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 36c | 113.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 110$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.41 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 66c | 100.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 61c | 93.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 93.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 48c | 89.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 63c | 87.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424b…9fc8backed No | 64c | 83.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 47c | 80.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 74.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 71.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 63c | 64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 25c | 59.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 31c | 56.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 36c | 54.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 67c | 53.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 71c | 52.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 69c | 52.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 51.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 30c | 47.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 80c | 44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 69c | 41.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f60…6ff6backed Yes | 53c | 37.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 28c | 36.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…f52abacked Yes | 34c | 34.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 36c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 33.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 45c | 32.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 68c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 31.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 58c | 26.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 78c | 26.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b9…a04ebacked No | 64c | 23.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 63c | 20.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…1586backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 61c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 72c | 19.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 70c | 17.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 76c | 15.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…4ed0backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.